MLB · resolved market
Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf434005dad62f7f8a3e9925984e59fe4499621920d5f0a50ff9ce3783c0a3158
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee5f…9a8bbacked No | 53c | 50,496$27,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 47c | 49,872$23,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,642.14 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked No | 53c | 236.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked No | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778a…1a6dbacked No | 53c | 38.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…1becbacked No | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…baddbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…be81backed Yes | 56c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?this page
- Will the Yankees and Dodgers combine for 9 or more runs scored?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.