Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 55 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf43d5b0f86e68ed08f5fb54dc38f1c86616eefbc7d58f96a4bc70b9f460c6bf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 58c | 865.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.89 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…5e3fbacked No | 2c | 639.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…3139backed Yes | 48c | 514.22$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 47c | 477.9$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.37 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…b2c5backed Yes | 21c | 409.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +381.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 53c | 389.92$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…d297backed Yes | 20c | 341.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d3…0a96backed Yes | 11c | 325.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +203.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 60c | 306.65$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 78c | 296.54$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36be…e312backed Yes | 45c | 261.29$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 67c | 225$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90a…94d7backed Yes | 62c | 114.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 62c | 93.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…881bbacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 28c | 72.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…60e3backed Yes | 47c | 63.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e0…0578backed Yes | 62c | 60.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…bc72backed Yes | 61c | 48.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd6…0ec1backed Yes | 53c | 43.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 56c | 35.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e73…b782backed Yes | 43c | 30.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…a27abacked Yes | 45c | 22.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0f…d44ebacked No | 54c | 20.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b16…6e3cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 55 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 115 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 55 and 64 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 65 and 74 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 75 and 84 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 85 and 94 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 95 and 104 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.