Us Politics · resolved market
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4640cd41c414f694cd33e049e0c58092eea15bb7e463af0124695e46442742d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,444,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,012,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,444,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 720 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 0c | 342,134$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.93 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…bd89backed Yes | 22c | 282,392$60,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,727.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 261,454$45,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,314.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2f…a01abacked Yes | 14c | 221,337$29,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,992.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5590…49f4backed Yes | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…44c5backed Yes | 0c | 83,200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…c125backed Yes | 23c | 80,267$18,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,625.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2d…3688backed Yes | 15c | 73,901$11,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,015.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0537backed Yes | 17c | 58,173$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…7312backed Yes | 10c | 53,320$5,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,272.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…0d50backed Yes | 25c | 53,297$13,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,226.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…ff0abacked Yes | 16c | 50,973$8,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,046 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…2b67backed Yes | 21c | 50,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 16c | 49,130$7,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,946.47 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 23c | 35,570$8,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,023.12 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2a66backed Yes | 14c | 35,095$5,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,068.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96cc…db22backed Yes | 14c | 30,000$4,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,285 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 15c | 26,577$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,087.32 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 15c | 26,297$3,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,893.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…a4fabacked Yes | 23c | 26,016$6,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,032 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes | 24c | 25,008$5,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,949.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…bc10backed Yes | 12c | 24,312$3,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,028.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Yes | 16c | 22,000$3,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,615.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56dc…f02bbacked Yes | 3c | 21,952$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.02 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…85cebacked No | 79c | 20,766$16,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,365.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…69a4backed Yes | 19c | 20,596$3,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,974 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…8cdfbacked Yes | 7c | 20,006$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 23c | 19,805$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,458.38 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…1482backed Yes | 20c | 19,618$3,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,844.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…8636backed Yes | 13c | 19,325$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…2cf8backed Yes | 15c | 17,865$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640b…102abacked Yes | 23c | 17,531$3,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 16c | 17,121$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…baf0backed Yes | 23c | 17,088$3,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,978 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 15c | 16,666$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.21 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 16c | 16,575$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.39 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 14c | 16,350$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 13c | 15,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 15c | 13,972$2,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…44c4backed Yes | 15c | 13,842$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.81 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfd…e025backed No | 78c | 13,145$10,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6f…13debacked Yes | 15c | 13,133$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 26c | 13,095$3,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,404.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…3a88backed Yes | 23c | 12,983$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…3d9abacked Yes | 15c | 12,919$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…64b0backed Yes | 12c | 12,809$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf65…0552backed Yes | 24c | 12,048$2,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,855.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…bab1backed Yes | 16c | 10,008$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 13c | 10,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb137…66c8backed Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeab…3516backed Yes | 16c | 9,943$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a85…e77ebacked Yes | 14c | 9,823$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 16c | 8,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 3c | 8,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 12c | 8,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…18d4backed Yes | 17c | 7,700$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…152bbacked Yes | 13c | 7,530$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b76…1573backed Yes | 15c | 7,339$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…923bbacked Yes | 15c | 7,075$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1949…515ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,000$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…3e34backed Yes | 19c | 6,702$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 76c | 6,666$5,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.84 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…080ebacked Yes | 19c | 6,655$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed Yes | 14c | 6,645$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cd…247bbacked Yes | 15c | 6,465$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed Yes | 20c | 6,400$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 12c | 6,342$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.05 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…beafbacked Yes | 16c | 6,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…9b44backed Yes | 13c | 6,170$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 17c | 5,991$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.4 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed Yes | 19c | 5,274$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54c…3dbabacked Yes | 25c | 5,200$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9580…0653backed Yes | 15c | 5,046$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 20c | 5,000$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…fe84backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ed…1503backed No | 77c | 4,780$3,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dce…4becbacked Yes | 15c | 4,667$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…e6c6backed Yes | 17c | 4,607$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed Yes | 24c | 4,603$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f3…32e8backed Yes | 23c | 4,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 76c | 4,494$3,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.94 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…ab3cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,458$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…467abacked Yes | 22c | 4,441$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…8891backed Yes | 14c | 4,368$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…886dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,167$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…f61fbacked Yes | 18c | 4,081$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a5…422bbacked Yes | 21c | 4,048$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…b48dbacked Yes | 14c | 4,004$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d0…3b77backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…eb9ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…f37ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,955$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…575fbacked Yes | 25c | 3,912$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…fb5fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,894$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27a…40a3backed Yes | 14c | 3,849$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…ea7ebacked Yes | 20c | 3,807$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622c…c68fbacked No | 80c | 3,750$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…72f4backed Yes | 27c | 3,704$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…f3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 3,664$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked Yes | 17c | 3,661$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D Housethis page
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: OtherNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, R HouseNo won
- 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.