Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d9dbeb0f258b883da791f5782251734e63174c6229277e844cbe498a767377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed 1win | 2c | 4,127$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed 1win | 12c | 1,833$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.36 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 18c | 1,665$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.47 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed 1win | 20c | 966.23$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.92 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed 1win | 37c | 770.35$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…94bfbacked Aurora | 54c | 450$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked 1win | 14c | 361.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed 1win | 10c | 339.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 151 | 31.8%48 W · 103 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed 1win | 43c | 230.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked 1win | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…304dbacked 1win | 13c | 163.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Aurora | 62c | 107.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed 1win | 42c | 107.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Aurora | 77c | 104.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed 1win | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Aurora | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…e2c8backed Aurora | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 56c | 45.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Aurora | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed 1win | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Aurora | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.