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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Lilmix (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
HEROIC Academyof HEROIC Academy, Lilmix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,327
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,327 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lilmix6c1,006$64 inLost-$63.925,70747.2%2,694 W · 3,013 L+45.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed HEROIC Academy61c496.47$302 inWon+$194.556,54042.9%2,805 W · 3,735 L-81.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix31c483.67$149 inLost-$148.958,13350.3%4,091 W · 4,042 L+169.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed HEROIC Academy56c331.45$186 inWon+$145.845,95437.7%2,247 W · 3,707 L+77.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Lilmix44c283$125 inLost-$124.524,16550.9%2,119 W · 2,046 L+70.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked HEROIC Academy79c192.4$151 inWon+$41.322,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked Lilmix40c184.26$74 inLost-$74.3626257.6%151 W · 111 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63c6…a5c9backed HEROIC Academy56c176.86$100 inWon+$77.123146.3%107 W · 124 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2c1…b6f3backed Lilmix43c137.48$59 inLost-$59.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed HEROIC Academy63c125.52$79 inWon+$46.5510426%27 W · 77 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a0c…3ccebacked Lilmix39c89.73$35 inLost-$34.9941640.6%169 W · 247 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6722…865fbacked HEROIC Academy62c79.7$49 inWon+$30.4127754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Lilmix37c75.76$28 inLost-$28.161,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Lilmix27c66.34$18 inLost-$17.9819331.1%60 W · 133 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7be…908dbacked Lilmix38c63.41$24 inLost-$24.3115352.3%80 W · 73 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1c…35c6backed HEROIC Academy57c52.26$30 inWon+$22.722854.4%124 W · 104 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbcf2…1e5bbacked Lilmix41c52.03$22 inLost-$21.5523858%138 W · 100 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed HEROIC Academy68c51.94$36 inWon+$16.435,46631.5%1,722 W · 3,744 L-400.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe84…54ddbacked Lilmix38c50$19 inLost-$1938753.2%206 W · 181 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Lilmix39c46.33$18 inLost-$17.9247053.2%250 W · 220 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5639…90fbbacked HEROIC Academy62c44.53$28 inWon+$16.991560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed HEROIC Academy61c35.28$22 inWon+$13.681,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked HEROIC Academy68c34.5$24 inWon+$10.9340635.7%145 W · 261 L-33.0wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaee4…471fbacked Lilmix44c30.99$14 inLost-$13.6435752.9%189 W · 168 L+22.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked HEROIC Academy70c29.62$21 inWon+$8.8936151.8%187 W · 174 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed HEROIC Academy63c26.35$17 inWon+$9.82,48424.7%613 W · 1,871 L-318.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Lilmix44c23.54$10 inLost-$10.3647856.7%271 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.