Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5832d72b7ff01d3224b0648f8b8f3d063a893275cafab5bae2f991a7b451228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 29c | 499.91$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 285.87$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.9 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 46c | 215.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 29c | 122$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 107.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 71c | 80.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 71c | 80.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…4a1bbacked Under | 50c | 28.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 69c | 25.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 71c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 71c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 71c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 71c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 71c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 71c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 71c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…6d55backed Under | 71c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Under | 71c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.