Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fairfield Stags vs. Manhattan Jaspers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5a092ab4047768af5c1dec33a1a74a47f8cca693a1aba5ad94d66366ab1ed7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manhattan Jaspersof Fairfield Stags, Manhattan Jaspers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Fairfield Stags | 52c | 6,500$3,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,380 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Fairfield Stags | 15c | 4,969$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.39 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Manhattan Jaspers | 48c | 4,752$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,471.17 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Manhattan Jaspers | 48c | 1,691$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fairfield Stags | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Fairfield Stags | 48c | 281.63$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Fairfield Stags | 15c | 264.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Fairfield Stags | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Manhattan Jaspers | 68c | 220.25$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Manhattan Jaspers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Fairfield Stags | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Manhattan Jaspers | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 109 | 39.4%43 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Manhattan Jaspers | 51c | 186.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Fairfield Stags | 52c | 130$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Manhattan Jaspers | 48c | 115.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Manhattan Jaspers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Fairfield Stags | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Fairfield Stags | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…e09ebacked Manhattan Jaspers | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.