NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5a89e27dcdb62a990055860767754b68a20c7276ea66ce97b93d18b85242869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jacketsof Oilers, Blue Jackets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Oilers | 28c | 699.6$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.89 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jackets | 71c | 129.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Oilers | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e3…1803backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 63.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…1278backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 59.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…367fbacked Blue Jackets | 72c | 58.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…43d1backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…f70abacked Blue Jackets | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…85bfbacked Blue Jackets | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e19…7100backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 47.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…166ebacked Blue Jackets | 72c | 47.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…9d51backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 45.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…1dc7backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab50…8f27backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…7246backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…b1e4backed Blue Jackets | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Blue Jackets | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…8447backed Blue Jackets | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. Blue JacketsBlue Jackets won
- Oilers vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Oilers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.