Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Bellarmine vs. Stetson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf633b698ac1d9d153b6d269fa5f1391d70f6afc20bce27a1bd3873d907f5a00a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stetsonof Bellarmine, Stetson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Stetson | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Bellarmine | 64c | 900$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…9189backed Stetson | 54c | 815$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Stetson | 49c | 806.66$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +171%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c0…9194backed Stetson | 50c | 222$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…f056backed Bellarmine | 46c | 221$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafda…d128backed Bellarmine | 50c | 184$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…b262backed Bellarmine | 46c | 179$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e86…34d3backed Bellarmine | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…03a0backed Stetson | 50c | 158$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff8…d19dbacked Bellarmine | 50c | 147$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba85…ad94backed Bellarmine | 50c | 121$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a88…9c4cbacked Stetson | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5c…ce53backed Bellarmine | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…56a4backed Stetson | 50c | 103$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec6…2346backed Bellarmine | 50c | 101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…4bf9backed Bellarmine | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…e85abacked Stetson | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…e00abacked Bellarmine | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b90…4cd5backed Stetson | 31c | 83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…f627backed Bellarmine | 54c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…20bfbacked Stetson | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d49…5798backed Bellarmine | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…fa62backed Bellarmine | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1557…c722backed Bellarmine | 69c | 61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b61…5bd2backed Bellarmine | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…daddbacked Stetson | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c97…362cbacked Bellarmine | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679b…28c4backed Stetson | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…5dfbbacked Stetson | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…5938backed Bellarmine | 52c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Stetson | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…a5d5backed Bellarmine | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…153fbacked Stetson | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bellarmine | 51c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…1e59backed Bellarmine | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1132…43cbbacked Bellarmine | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db5…f8eebacked Stetson | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd965…f837backed Bellarmine | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Stetson | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…020ebacked Bellarmine | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…b7cebacked Bellarmine | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.