Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6bd3924ffcb8930bb31aef3398c2e89d9ee599c082ed5e592974c2bb07975e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked No | 51c | 2,900$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked No | 51c | 2,664$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.53 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 49c | 2,229$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.01 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 50c | 2,020$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.01 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 72c | 1,635$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.69 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 52c | 1,418$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.18 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 48c | 1,147$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.68 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 77c | 816.21$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Yes | 50c | 545$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 50c | 237.65$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…8a63backed Yes | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 72c | 222.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 77c | 207.73$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 49c | 171.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2232backed Yes | 73c | 123.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 51c | 119.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 49c | 102.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.17 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…50aabacked No | 51c | 92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 51c | 65.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 51c | 59.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Yes | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 50c | 32.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…12cbbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 51c | 25.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 49c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…cba5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-02-07?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.