Tennis · resolved market
Tigre 2: Pedro Sakamoto vs Stefan Palosi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf709101c59f992a419de212d31818161316e7fdc29fc367110dfe61d37a7e8ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Palosiof Sakamoto, Palosi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sakamoto | 10c | 1,393$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sakamoto | 20c | 1,197$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.86 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Sakamoto | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Palosi | 65c | 880.33$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.12 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Sakamoto | 36c | 745.03$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.21 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Sakamoto | 35c | 718.54$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 1,980 | 46.2%915 W · 1,065 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…412ebacked Sakamoto | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabef…3004backed Sakamoto | 35c | 660.76$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.66 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…6323backed Palosi | 76c | 483.24$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 102 | 67.6%69 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Palosi | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…3ec1backed Sakamoto | 35c | 312.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Palosi | 69c | 270.26$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.61 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sakamoto | 20c | 260.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Palosi | 65c | 259.82$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Sakamoto | 12c | 241.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 151 | 17.9%27 W · 124 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Sakamoto | 34c | 214$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Sakamoto | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 248 | 26.2%65 W · 183 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Sakamoto | 10c | 197.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sakamoto | 9c | 181.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed Palosi | 67c | 168$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Palosi | 64c | 147.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sakamoto | 35c | 144.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Palosi | 70c | 142.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 307 | 50.5%155 W · 152 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Palosi | 63c | 111.45$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Palosi | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Palosi | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 6,652 | 50.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L | +263.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Palosi | 63c | 98.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Sakamoto | 29c | 89.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Sakamoto | 19c | 75.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…f11bbacked Palosi | 70c | 71.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Palosi | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Sakamoto | 20c | 57.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Palosi | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 976 | 44.6%435 W · 541 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537a…7447backed Palosi | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Sakamoto | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Palosi | 72c | 39.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ff7cbacked Palosi | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a7…b344backed Palosi | 65c | 30.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed Palosi | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Palosi | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Palosi | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Palosi | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…a57bbacked Palosi | 78c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.