Olympics · resolved market
Women's Group B - Japan vs. Sweden
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d8e92c8d93c596d4eba2404df5d0c226b5c79da9c14d476422e9a991af91c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swedenof Japan, Sweden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Japan | 14c | 6,923$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Japan | 10c | 6,143$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.86 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Japan | 11c | 1,534$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.43 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Japan | 1c | 1,434$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Japan | 14c | 1,276$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Japan | 11c | 700$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Japan | 11c | 522.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ea…d9babacked Japan | 13c | 460$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e46…bb13backed Japan | 13c | 460$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d39…9b8dbacked Japan | 13c | 450$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Japan | 12c | 448.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Japan | 12c | 419.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…df88backed Japan | 8c | 363.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…37f0backed Japan | 13c | 360$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Japan | 10c | 321.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Japan | 13c | 232$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…6c98backed Sweden | 79c | 188.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36d…d412backed Japan | 14c | 147.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Japan | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Japan | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.