NHL · resolved market
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Bakersfield Condors
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a323649350103895a318551afd656a31776f988c68500b14fd02e8152961e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ontario Reignof Ontario Reign, Bakersfield Condors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Bakersfield Condors | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Bakersfield Condors | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 186.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 167$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bakersfield Condors | 46c | 59.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Bakersfield Condors | 47c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 41.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…214ebacked Bakersfield Condors | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…7d7bbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…382bbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.