Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9bf340b2fc6f99344e8963114d23a92f7d6fe52cdf15ad4235348e3dd83cbff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,836 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 1,181$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 49c | 509.18$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.68 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…bc9ebacked Yes | 50c | 500.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 50c | 482.36$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.18 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Yes | 49c | 204.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 51c | 188.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.13 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 46c | 142.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20b1…69d2backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +73%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 50c | 90.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Yes | 45c | 52.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…270fbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 49c | 25.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…b661backed Yes | 49c | 20.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.