Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9ed9cadfa2f1082d6f4097397cbf9938305762f0a910270288748bf9b2c1bfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb501…9a53backed No | 13c | 829.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 79c | 514.92$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 477.49$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.85 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 37c | 414.43$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.08 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 313.09$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…6338backed No | 8c | 272.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 257.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 25c | 215.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.87 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 20c | 203.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.23 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 199.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 170.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…93e2backed No | 77c | 130.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 120.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 90.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 77c | 84.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 72.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 59.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 78c | 53.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 76c | 48.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 47.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 73c | 36.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 67c | 36.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 32.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 27.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 21.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 20.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 76c | 16.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 77c | 16.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 14.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.