Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rognac: Lui Maxted vs Louis Larue
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb11f7a792bef7184d45cf7abb2724cccbd54be6fa77aac4fdbfead60208bab8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lui Maxtedof Lui Maxted, Louis Larue
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Louis Larue | 44c | 4,980$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.14 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lui Maxted | 45c | 2,029$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.9 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lui Maxted | 44c | 719.61$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.98 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Louis Larue | 11c | 528.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…a8aabacked Louis Larue | 9c | 460$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Louis Larue | 56c | 270.64$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.56 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Lui Maxted | 65c | 230.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…379fbacked Louis Larue | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Lui Maxted | 44c | 215.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Lui Maxted | 42c | 127.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Louis Larue | 35c | 127.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…558bbacked Louis Larue | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Lui Maxted | 47c | 105.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…650bbacked Louis Larue | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Lui Maxted | 56c | 89.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Lui Maxted | 42c | 69.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Lui Maxted | 44c | 66.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Lui Maxted | 44c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Lui Maxted | 44c | 57.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 349 | 57.9%202 W · 147 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Louis Larue | 44c | 52.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Louis Larue | 44c | 52.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Louis Larue | 44c | 52.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Lui Maxted | 56c | 49.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Lui Maxted | 45c | 32.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked Lui Maxted | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Lui Maxted | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.