TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Portland vs. St. Mary's

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
St. Mary'sof Portland, St. Mary's
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,090 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x480d…f219backed Portland10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5039144.5%174 W · 217 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf482…d3c3backed Portland7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9587…ef94backed St. Mary's50c229$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…0fa3backed St. Mary's50c223$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba68…13ecbacked Portland50c207$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c9…7162backed St. Mary's50c182$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a8…6692backed St. Mary's50c170$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb3…e542backed Portland50c165$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x818d…05fdbacked Portland50c132$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06cf…8360backed Portland14c77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bad…1e4cbacked St. Mary's50c52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x769e…c39dbacked Portland50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa90e…8fdabacked St. Mary's50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82db…4853backed Portland50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b0…5880backed Portland50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc829…0574backed Portland50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a19…9edabacked Portland50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b29…a58abacked St. Mary's50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaba…50a8backed Portland50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9906…6db5backed Portland50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3d…c78bbacked St. Mary's50c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9624…e9e9backed Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…b8c0backed Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31f6…56ecbacked Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb133…1889backed Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…03d2backed Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb89f…cb59backed Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11b1…b731backed Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69de…57a6backed Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d12…1ca6backed Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da8…ec1dbacked Portland50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b48…7797backed St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd2…1360backed St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf00c…09b8backed Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd7…5f4cbacked Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3a5…7f08backed Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2af9…bf6cbacked Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b0…e3dabacked St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x635c…fbe3backed St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f7…032abacked St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea1…3e28backed Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7d…2a3dbacked St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17a4…c248backed Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa77a…1686backed St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…55dcbacked Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x519e…c1b3backed Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf87e…1f41backed St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b45…d8c0backed Portland50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01cb…b1f8backed St. Mary's50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.