Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on February 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb8db0117cf574046dfd868398b953e09cacb5b34a2483d58e1995c3a4248924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6592…5951backed Up | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe447…4ab2backed Up | 72c | 3,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…57c3backed Down | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…571ebacked Up | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…204cbacked Down | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…1423backed Down | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28d…91fabacked Down | 23c | 1,550$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…c77fbacked Down | 23c | 1,450$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c20…b171backed Down | 28c | 1,135$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…a09ebacked Down | 39c | 1,120$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…df3bbacked Down | 39c | 1,060$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ea…e2f2backed Up | 56c | 1,020$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…2ba2backed Up | 56c | 1,010$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400a…9a1ebacked Up | 60c | 1,010$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…38b8backed Up | 60c | 1,010$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c6…8a64backed Up | 60c | 980$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf377…3e60backed Down | 28c | 975$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2c…8acdbacked Up | 56c | 970$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…1977backed Down | 28c | 890$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3550backed Down | 39c | 820$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.