Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbda0e3c5c48839ca7d1b6362181f3f0022e597a14e2efff3e3beaa67f838a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 276.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 234.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 13c | 208.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 191.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 14c | 174.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 171.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 171.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…5bd5backed Yes | 23c | 106.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked No | 79c | 100.18$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 18c | 88.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 18c | 79.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 76.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 74.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…4b5fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…71e4backed No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 77c | 51.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 39.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 39.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…7121backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 80c | 30.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd266…f250backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked No | 79c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.