College Football · resolved market
Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc79dcddda4ad5017a99ed4a9d48b856c9bd16bab2f2f06812094b122c3c73b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Techof Virginia, Virginia Tech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Virginia | 33c | 12,763$4,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,211.72 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed Virginia Tech | 67c | 12,000$8,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,960 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…978abacked Virginia Tech | 67c | 1,194$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Virginia | 33c | 1,168$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.17 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Virginia | 33c | 1,001$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Virginia Tech | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Virginia Tech | 67c | 548.09$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…aaffbacked Virginia Tech | 67c | 230.9$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Virginia | 31c | 216.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Virginia | 6c | 200.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb48d…9f73backed Virginia Tech | 72c | 164.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Virginia Tech | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed Virginia Tech | 67c | 139.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…fb24backed Virginia Tech | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec2…4d46backed Virginia | 32c | 62.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.