Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe5235d6114247719e4ecd9f0c335d0b3ac537d8466b665b79a268ff40ed0f3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 42c | 853.89$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 336.71$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 58c | 232.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 187.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 60c | 166.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 40c | 159.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 144.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 59c | 139.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 38c | 126.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 115.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 40c | 94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 82.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 60c | 65.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 59c | 64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 58.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 34c | 38.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 51c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Over | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.