Cricket · resolved market
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings - Who wins the toss?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe9263df681710e31c8a45cfd42935d44721a6fa050edbd744a8fb6525d92c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rajasthan Royalsof Rajasthan Royals, Chennai Super Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09f5…6678backed Chennai Super Kings | 0c | 14,383$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…820fbacked Chennai Super Kings | 43c | 133.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 187 | 29.4%55 W · 132 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…d9cfbacked Chennai Super Kings | 55c | 72.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 228 | 43.9%100 W · 128 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…b599backed Rajasthan Royals | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Chennai Super Kings | 49c | 49.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…569ebacked Rajasthan Royals | 49c | 46.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…92cabacked Rajasthan Royals | 62c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23aa…449fbacked Chennai Super Kings | 52c | 26.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…f863backed Rajasthan Royals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…edf7backed Rajasthan Royals | 57c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings - Who wins the toss?this page
- Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super KingsRajasthan Royals won
- Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings - Completed match?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.