Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UC Santa Barbara vs. Cal Irvine
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff283ad32694fe9c2e606ad7861fc8cf74afe1bdd666c61848312b6836316b54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cal Irvineof UC Santa Barbara, Cal Irvine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cal Irvine | 70c | 3,271$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.55 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Cal Irvine | 73c | 1,020$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.4 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed UC Santa Barbara | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked UC Santa Barbara | 21c | 414$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked UC Santa Barbara | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2872…f455backed Cal Irvine | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde4…4cc7backed Cal Irvine | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…ab0bbacked UC Santa Barbara | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801b…8a51backed Cal Irvine | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…515cbacked UC Santa Barbara | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Cal Irvine | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…f838backed UC Santa Barbara | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1397…2c42backed UC Santa Barbara | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…5f75backed UC Santa Barbara | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9847…a488backed Cal Irvine | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a99…d6cabacked UC Santa Barbara | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…b3e0backed UC Santa Barbara | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…1156backed Cal Irvine | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…9dd9backed Cal Irvine | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…1c06backed UC Santa Barbara | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…7dd0backed UC Santa Barbara | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…396cbacked Cal Irvine | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4932…203fbacked Cal Irvine | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cal Irvine | 79c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.