Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Texas vs. Arkansas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff933d7caf99e4b6ceb7717ac77dca5881d6b6b32c3691b9ae70d2ac1cc5d095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansasof Texas, Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Arkansas | 61c | 18,697$11,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,357.83 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Texas | 38c | 14,156$5,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,441.22 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Texas | 44c | 2,293$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Texas | 50c | 1,381$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.33 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…bfbebacked Texas | 37c | 328$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Texas | 45c | 282.28$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.03 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae2…4727backed Arkansas | 63c | 233$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Texas | 39c | 171.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Texas | 40c | 142.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Texas | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…afffbacked Texas | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a2…7f65backed Arkansas | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…35d1backed Arkansas | 63c | 73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…ba22backed Arkansas | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Texas | 45c | 47.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…d2b1backed Arkansas | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Texas | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…bf1dbacked Texas | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216c…e0eabacked Texas | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…7a58backed Texas | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400e…04e3backed Arkansas | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…9ecbbacked Arkansas | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1a…9cd3backed Arkansas | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.