Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffa46fd05579f48523c4689ef1cea8eb906bee0ae13029115bbdadfbb37a0618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Beijing Guoan FCof Beijing Guoan FC, Wuhan San Zhen FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,355 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd88d…f708backed Beijing Guoan FC | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…56f3backed Beijing Guoan FC | 36c | 338.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 61c | 163.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Beijing Guoan FC | 39c | 149$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wuhan San Zhen FC | 52c | 145.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Beijing Guoan FC | 52c | 135.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Wuhan San Zhen FC | 64c | 116.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf6…4eaabacked Wuhan San Zhen FC | 64c | 111.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…e715backed Wuhan San Zhen FC | 64c | 110.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Beijing Guoan FC | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Wuhan San Zhen FC won
- Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.