Wallet 0x033f…618e
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x033f0346c007323030eb420305ffede19a95618e
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 14
- What they are worth now
- $1,517
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 1
bought for $830
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 14, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x4427…5f8dbacked outcome 1 | 891.73shares | 52c | 100c | $890 |
| Will Tyreek Hill play for the Los Angeles Chargers next?backed No | 300shares | 50c | 98c | $295 |
| Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?backed No | 160.9shares | 52c | 100c | $160 |
| Market 0x5ebe…2d89backed outcome 1 | 35shares | 68c | 100c | $35 |
| Vikings vs. Broncosbacked Broncos | 48.16shares | 66c | 71c | $34 |
| Market 0x8887…91e5backed outcome 1 | 31.75shares | 51c | 98c | $31 |
| Market 0xb279…9518backed outcome 1 | 20shares | 96c | 95c | $19 |
| Market 0x7800…2371backed outcome 1 | 16shares | 51c | 89c | $14 |
| Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 TOUR Championship?backed No | 10shares | 94c | 98c | $10 |
| Fight to Go the Distance?backed No | 9shares | 76c | 89c | $8 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 1 largest of 1. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Palmer: Anytime Goalscorerbacked No · resolved | 300shares | 81c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 never will: TailMyPicks scored that market and this wallet’s position on it did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 2,970
- Categories scored
- 40
- Categories below 50
- 17
Best Category: NFL, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).
Best Category NFL at 62 out of 100; worst La Liga at 44.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,970 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 225 | 46.7%105 W · 120 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Mlslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +476.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +242.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -68%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +390%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.