Parlays · one parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x07a8e675ab852288ae4fbd3cc9498e87317e6872/p/0x03499c78fca289e5b97511e53ed4250cb80000000000000000000000000000
Wallet 0x07a8…6872’s 5-leg parlay did not come in.
A parlay pays a dollar a share only if every leg wins.
Rebuilt .
What this wallet bought, and what happened
- Ticket
- 5 legs at 13cat least one leg did not come in, and the ticket paid nothing
- Settled
- Sep 26, 2026, EDTwhen the window for its payment closed · US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets
- Position
- 76.29 shares$10 staked on the ticket
- P/L held to the end
- -$10-100% on this parlay, not cash withdrawn
The price is for the whole ticket, including the market maker’s margin. A parlay is priced by a professional, not traded against other wallets, and no price is published for a single leg anywhere. 3 of the 5 legs below came in and 2 did not.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored: positions held to the end, in markets that passed the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance. Open positions are never counted on this site.
The 5 legs, and which of them came in
| Leg | Market | Needed | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Noche UFC: Dan Ige vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card) | David Martinez | Came in |
| 2 | Noche UFC: Tim Elliott vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) | Édgar Cháirez | Did not |
| 3 | Noche UFC: Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Main Card) | Jean Silva | Came in |
| 4 | Noche UFC: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales (Flyweight, Main Card) | Brandon Moreno | Came in |
| 5 | Noche UFC: Curtis Blaydes vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) | Waldo Cortes Acosta | Did not |
These legs were read from the Polygon blockchain, where Polymarket records what each parlay is made of. Each leg names its market by its identifier. They were not matched from the ticket’s wording, because one wrong match on one leg would reverse the verdict above without anyone noticing.
One ticket is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Parlays record.
What these columns mean
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x07a8…6872in Parlays | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.8 | +0.06 | 26c | +17% | 54 |
These 7 columns cover every qualified parlay this wallet has. They say nothing about the ticket above. Most of this board sits below 50, and that is normal: a parlay is priced by a market maker who keeps a margin. So across the whole board, the average ticket was bought at 27.8c and won 19.6% of the time.
Where to go from here
- 0x07a8…6872’s whole record: every category it is scored in, not just this one.
- The Parlays leaderboard: who makes money on these, and how few do.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.