TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1056…5b18

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
197
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
18

Best Category: Commodities, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 56 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$17.16
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$170.19
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.69
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$19.58
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$25.65
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.17
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.22
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+203%+$355.1
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.64
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$236.13
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+100%+$415
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$89.78
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$137.6
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$114.66
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.66
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$70.65
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$124.46
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+78.6%+$10.12
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$475.2
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+101.2%+$57.35
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+174.3%+$38.77
Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$77.05
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+75.4%+$32.68
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+69.8%+$65.76
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$161.31
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT3050%15 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$59.85
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$58.98
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+348.4%+$135.2
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$454Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$386.4
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.3
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$70.04
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+121.3%+$81.67
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.84
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.93
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$63.91
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.7
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+119.8%+$90.47
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$204.36
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$39.75
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$11.52
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.36
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.46
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$13.25
Will the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.1
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.48
Will the San Antonio Spurs win more than 44.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$24.31
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.02
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+29.2%+$39.32
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Assists Over 2.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$68.27
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$549Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$549.07
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$985.92
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$36.75
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$10.56
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.64
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.39
Will "Sinners" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$111.21
Will Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy win Best Producer of a TV Movie at the 37th PGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$85.54
Will 'Wuthering Heights' debut week album sales be less than 75k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+117.4%+$22.14
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$75.19
Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+37%+$34.56
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$12.47
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$50.59
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$7.25
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15.3
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+28.4%+$74.86
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$40.32
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35.09
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$184.28
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+316.7%+$97.28
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$40.18
Will Wunmi Mosaku be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$128.77
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5.25
Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.14
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$46.41
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT2045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.87
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.73
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.12
Will there be at least 1550 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$228.28
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$238.5
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$613.35
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$302.56
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$377.59
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$353.07
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+156.4%+$65.27
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+61.1%+$232.09
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$40.32
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+334.8%+$234.08
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+85.2%+$11.04
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$96.75
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$465Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+26.6%+$123.48
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+191.6%+$186.59
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.82
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$21.76
All 20 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$32.01
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$16.32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.97
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.4
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.31
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.43
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.06
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$666.49
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$95.68
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.57
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$440.55
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.5
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$53.96
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+35.1%+$62.66
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$149.44
Will Gemini win the okbet trading competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$22.44
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.69
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$12.32
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+40.8%+$64.67
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.17
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$584Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$584.22
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$19.24
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$20.14
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.32
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$711.1
Will Chris Carr win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.88
Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.62
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$47.85
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$18.33
Will John Cornyn come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$107.9
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+100%+$27
Will Mills flip Platner for Maine Dem Senate Primary Winner by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$34
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.96
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.12
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.8
Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$220.22
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.45
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.14
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+188.2%+$371.56
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$102.76
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+156.4%+$49.41
Will Baluta win by 0-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$57.12
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$41.25
All 11 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+149.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+341.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$667.44
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$140.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+92.3%+$45.6
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+69.5%+$219.76
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrik Antonius win at Hustler Casino on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$350.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$91.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?backed SpaceX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$827Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$371.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$377.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.