TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1262…056f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
420
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 51 out of 100; worst La Liga at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLBlast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT27448.2%132 W · 142 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 274 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KBO: NC Dinos vs. LG Twinsbacked LG Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$11.84
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.8
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)backed San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$135.49
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.4
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$15.66
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.74
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$83.85
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.71
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.15
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)backed Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.48
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.45
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+79.7%+$257.49
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.13
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+148.9%+$84.94
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)backed San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$142.56
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.67
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$79
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$10.8
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$35.15
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$53.9
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$75.64
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.2
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+61.8%+$88.04
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.14
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)backed Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.3
Showing 25 of 274 picks, newest first.
WNBAlast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT10050%50 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 100 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5)backed Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.34
Atlanta Dream vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 181.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+97.5%+$31.1
Atlanta Dream vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 182.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$15.64
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5)backed Atlanta Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.14
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-4.5)backed Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.44
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynxbacked Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.12
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+110.6%+$15.93
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.61
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-6.5)backed Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.86
Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)backed Portland Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$10.12
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)backed Portland Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.48
Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)backed Portland Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.26
Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)backed Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.36
Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Skybacked Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.88
Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5)backed Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)backed Chicago Sky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.22
Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 187.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.22
Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 186.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$34.78
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-13.5)backed Toronto Tempo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+100.8%+$28.61
Las Vegas Aces vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 182.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$14.52
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5)backed Toronto Tempo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+127.5%+$36.43
Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 165.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.57
Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 164.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.11
Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire: O/U 163.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 173.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$19.5
Showing 25 of 100 picks, newest first.
Mlslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-08-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.73
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)backed FC Dallas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$702.42
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.38
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)backed Toronto FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+111.4%+$656.26
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$46.36
FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$27.5
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-08-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,339.88
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-08-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.03
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-08-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$109.27
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-08-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+140.2%+$15.76
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+97.5%+$146.6
All 13 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mary Stoianabacked Mary Stoiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$3.75
Winston-Salem Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Jenson Brooksby · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
US Open, Qualification WTA: Caroline Dolehide vs Veronika Podrezbacked Caroline Dolehide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.32
US Open, Qualification ATP: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Tom Gentzschbacked Tom Gentzsch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$4.35
US Open, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Linda Fruhvirtovabacked Polina Kudermetova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.13
US Open, Qualification WTA: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Himeno Sakatsumebacked Himeno Sakatsume · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.08
US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefaninibacked Lucrezia Stefanini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Winston-Salem Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Miomir Kecmanovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$21.15
Quebec City: Jesper de Jong vs Hugo Gastonbacked Jesper de Jong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.4
Quebec City: Jesper de Jong vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaerbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.27
Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+60.4%+$11.3
Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Filsbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$112.86
Cincinnati Open: Emma Navarro vs Jessica Pegulabacked Emma Navarro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.78
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFLlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Titans: 1H Moneylinebacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+151.5%+$53.61
Seahawks vs. Titansbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$299.81
Bills vs. Brownsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$31.92
Spread: CAR (-1.5)backed JAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.4
Panthers vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.04
49ers vs. Chargersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+112.6%+$173.69
All 6 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-61.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Ligalast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.