Parlays · one parlay
Wallet 0x1f46…957a’s 2-leg parlay did not come in.
A parlay pays a dollar a share only if every leg wins.
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x1f465d6a15aae1c371c7960bd66bc431ef64957a/p/0x03d8d0e8f5e0f6ebaa4c62e4e4fca895880000000000000000000000000000
Rebuilt .
What this wallet bought, and what happened
- Ticket
- 2 legs at 26cat least one leg did not come in, and the ticket paid nothing
- Settled
- Sep 6, 2026, EDTwhen the horizon closed on it · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 346.58 shares$89 staked on the ticket
- P/L held to resolution
- -$89.23-100% on this parlay, not cash withdrawn
The price is the price of the whole ticket, the market maker’s margin included — a parlay is quoted by a professional rather than traded against other wallets on an order book, and there is no published price for a single leg anywhere.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
The 2 legs, as Polymarket wrote them
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5 AND UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)
TailMyPicks could not link these to their markets. That is a fact about the record, not about the ticket. Polymarket writes what a parlay is made of onto the blockchain once, at the moment it is first bought, and this ticket was bought before TailMyPicks began reading those entries. The wording above is Polymarket’s own and is everything its API publishes about the legs.
One ticket is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Parlays record.
What these columns mean
- Qualified picks
- Every Pick this wallet made in this category that is large enough to be a real opinion and cheap enough that a follower could still have realised the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- The share of this wallet's qualified picks whose outcome won, with the wins and the losses beside it — 62% of eleven and 62% of eleven hundred are not the same claim. Held to resolution: a pick is graded on the market's winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand. No board is ranked by this: favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the entry prices already implied. Counted in wins: +8 means eight more than the prices this wallet paid were pricing in. It is the number that separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, once the worse entry price a follower gets is charged against it. The raw edge is what the wallet got; this is what copying it would have got. Edge that vanishes at two cents of slippage was never sellable.
- Avg entry
- The price this wallet paid, in cents, averaged across its qualified picks and weighted by how much it put on each. Buys only — selling out later does not change it. 88c beside a 90% win rate is a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The mean return on one pick, held to resolution, with every pick counted the same regardless of size. That equal weighting is the point: it is what tells a record earned across many picks apart from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number a wallet is ranked by in a category: its edge per pick, shrunk toward zero so that a short lucky run cannot outrank a long record, then graded out of 100 on a ruler that never moves. No edge at all grades 50, and a grade screenshotted today still means the same thing in six months. The scale itself is published with the figures it grades; this page holds no copy of it.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x1f46…957ain Parlays | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +6.4 | +0.13 | 30c | +57.4% | 60 |
These 7 columns describe every qualified parlay this wallet holds and say nothing about the ticket above. Most of this board sits below 50, and that is the normal case: a parlay is quoted by a market maker who keeps a spread, so across the whole board the average ticket was bought at 27.8c and won 19.6% of the time.
Where to go from here
- 0x1f46…957a’s whole record — every category it is scored in, not just this one.
- The Parlays leaderboard — who actually makes money on these, and how few do.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.