Champions League · one pick
Wallet 0x25fd…a641 got this wrong.
UEFA Nations League Round of 8: Italy vs. Germany
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x25fdd2b28e7a723c0097c8edda4cd5a0ea9da641/m/0x51fbe951dd18adb04d133f1d2cb7b45b14ddff95843051896ccac4ec0a60e68c
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Italyat 16c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- Germany won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 100 shares$16 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- -$16-100% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Champions League record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x25fd…a641in Champions League | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Champions League and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market44 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Champions League record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.