Wallet 0x2c4a…8e5d
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x2c4aa9e8f13672f8acacbfb47b005b485c7b8e5d
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$333,706 staked over 3,960 qualified picks in 21 categories, 7 of 21 below 50.
Best category
Australian A League
$1,558 staked over 31 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.11 per pick.
See the full Australian A League boardSecond best
NFL
$23,480 staked over 176 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.08 per pick.
See the full NFL boardThird best
Serie A
$18,310 staked over 190 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full Serie A boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,960 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category21 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian A Leaguelast settled May 15, 2026, EDT | $1,558 | before 94%in play 6%, over 31 Australian A League picks with a start of play; typically bought 47 min before the start | 5 h 46to the end, median over 35 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1996% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 96% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 29 of 31 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.0 | +0.19 | 55c | +41.7% | 62 |
The 31 picks behind Australian A League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 31 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFL Inactivelast settled Feb 9, 2026, EST | $23,480 | before 89%in play 11%, over 176 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 33 before the start | 11 h 43to the end, median over 219 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0998% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 137 of 176 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3 | +0.09 | 47c | +21.1% | 59 |
The 176 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 176 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled Aug 31, 2026, EDT | $18,310 | before 94%in play 6%, over 190 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 13 before the start | 6 h 47to the end, median over 222 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0691% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 91% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 160 of 190 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | +12.4 | +0.07 | 52c | +13.7% | 56 |
The 190 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 190 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagues Inactivelast settled Jun 1, 2026, EDT | $6,426 | before 99%in play 1%, over 127 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 55 min before the start | 5 h 49to the end, median over 355 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0593% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 93% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 125 of 127 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4 | +0.05 | 56c | +8.2% | 55 |
The 127 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 127 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier League Inactivelast settled Sep 1, 2026, EDT | $62,779 | before 96%in play 4%, over 612 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 22 before the start | 8 h 34to the end, median over 721 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0491% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 91% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 493 of 618 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 618 | 57.4%355 W · 263 L | +25.2 | +0.04 | 53c | +8.5% | 54 |
The 618 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 618 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mls Inactivelast settled May 24, 2026, EDT | $3,990 | before 98%in play 2%, over 49 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 56 min before the start | 6 h 20to the end, median over 207 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0496% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 96% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 48 of 49 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.2 | +0.04 | 57c | +8% | 53 |
The 49 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 49 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled Aug 28, 2026, EDT | $13,020 | before 99%in play 1%, over 138 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 56 min before the start | 7 h 08to the end, median over 160 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03102% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 102% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 115 of 138 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | +4.5 | +0.03 | 53c | +11.6% | 53 |
The 138 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 138 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBA Inactivelast settled Jan 30, 2026, EST | $46,122 | before 75%in play 25%, over 724 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 7 h 09 before the start | 10 h 21to the end, median over 952 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0285% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 85% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 664 of 728 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 728 | 47.4%345 W · 383 L | +17.8 | +0.02 | 45c | +2.6% | 53 |
The 728 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 728 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesliga Inactivelast settled Aug 29, 2026, EDT | $17,620 | before 93%in play 7%, over 156 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 09 before the start | 6 h 43to the end, median over 171 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0289% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 89% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 127 of 156 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.2 | +0.03 | 52c | +5.1% | 53 |
The 156 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 156 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions League Inactivelast settled Jul 14, 2026, EDT | $28,475 | before 99%in play 1%, over 213 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 h 50 before the start | 10 h 30to the end, median over 307 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0290% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 90% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 166 of 213 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +5.4 | +0.03 | 51c | +2.4% | 53 |
The 213 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 213 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Football Inactivelast settled Jan 3, 2026, EST | $2,961 | before 83%in play 17%, over 36 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 h 58 before the start | 11 h 53to the end, median over 39 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0389% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 89% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 27 of 36 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.1 | +0.03 | 44c | +12.3% | 52 |
The 36 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 36 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast settled Aug 31, 2026, EDT | $3,147 | before 97%in play 3%, over 74 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 59 min before the start | 6 h 03to the end, median over 198 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 68% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 65 of 74 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.9 | +0.01 | 57c | +2.8% | 51 |
The 74 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 74 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast settled Jan 6, 2026, EST | $25,096 | before 99%in play 1%, over 472 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 h 48 before the start | 11 h 34to the end, median over 564 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 53% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 345 of 472 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4 | +0.01 | 48c | +2% | 51 |
The 472 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 472 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tweets Inactivelast settled Jan 10, 2025, EST | $7,158 | —no start of play | 19 h 55to the end, median over 16 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 51% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 8 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3 | +0.02 | 12c | -69.2% | 51 |
The 14 picks behind Tweets are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Politics Inactivelast settled Jan 20, 2025, EST | $264 | —no start of play | 1 h 14resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.25no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3 | -0.25 | 25c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind Us Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Jan 26, 2025, EST | $28 | —too few: 1 pick | 5 h 59to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.27no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3 | -0.27 | 27c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled Sep 1, 2026, EDT | $3,246 | before 84%in play 16%, over 61 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 02 before the start | 6 h 09to the end, median over 255 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 54 of 61 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4 | -0.02 | 52c | -6.5% | 48 |
The 61 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 61 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Liga Inactivelast settled Aug 30, 2026, EDT | $38,803 | before 95%in play 5%, over 319 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 50 before the start | 7 h 42to the end, median over 400 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 261 of 324 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 324 | 51.5%167 W · 157 L | -9.4 | -0.03 | 54c | -6.1% | 47 |
The 324 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 324 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 18, 2026, EDT | $15,011 | before 99%in play 1%, over 397 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 44 before the start | 7 h 22to the end, median over 543 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 335 of 397 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 397 | 49.9%198 W · 199 L | -16.3 | -0.04 | 54c | -7.2% | 46 |
The 397 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 397 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast settled Aug 6, 2026, EDT | $14,994 | before 98%in play 2%, over 128 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 9 h 30 before the start | 10 h 55to the end, median over 233 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 102 of 129 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 129 | 48.8%63 W · 66 L | -6.5 | -0.05 | 54c | -10.5% | 45 |
The 129 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 129 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFC Inactivelast settled Mar 15, 2026, EDT | $1,218 | before 36%in play 64%, over 14 UFC picks with a start of play; typically bought 58 min after the start | 8 h 45to the end, median over 28 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 16 of 25 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1 | -0.12 | 36c | -31.7% | 43 |
The 25 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 3,960 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 25 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 0
- What they are worth now
- $0bought for $0
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $0
This wallet holds nothing on a market that is still running. Everything below is settled and waiting to be cashed.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 (we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet at exactly that number is holding more than we counted). These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 60 | 33c | $0 | Counted |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 60 | 30c | $0 | Counted |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 60 | 53c | $0 | Counted |
| Spread: Sweden (-1.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Tunisia · settled | 60 | 73c | $0 | Counted |
| Spread: United States (-1.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Australia · settled | 50 | 64c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 5 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.