Australian A League · one pick
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x2cb39b83e42004dbc188a5fce3d568e64e3e78e9/m/0xb8dffe17068e40f1fcc6d6571d41dd9ca62f699041009450a4dca0fda823d59d
Wallet 0x2cb3…78e9 got this right.
Rebuilt .
What this wallet picked, and what happened
- Backed
- Noat 64c, the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- No won · US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets
- Position
- 126.12 shares$81 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to the end
- +$45.4+56.3% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold before: buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once buys on opposite sides cancel out, share for share. So a fully hedged market gives no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored: positions held to the end, in markets that passed the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance. Open positions are never counted on this site.
One pick is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Australian A League record.
What these columns mean
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2cb3…78e9in Australian A League | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5 | -0.11 | 51c | -1.9% | 48 |
These 7 columns cover every qualified pick this wallet has in Australian A League. They say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins beyond what the prices it paid already implied. It tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 shown as clearly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market97 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Australian A League record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Polymarket’s own page for the question. Opening it is up to you: this page asks Polymarket for nothing.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.