Wallet 0x3654…1b78
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x3654e2c92f08f722e8983db1f5d48c8962bf1b78
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$163,737 staked over 3,176 qualified picks in 28 categories, 13 of 28 below 50.
Best category
Champions League
$6,326 staked over 96 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.12 per pick.
See the full Champions League boardSecond best
WNBA
$2,535 staked over 97 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full WNBA boardThird best
Other European Leagues
$10,952 staked over 298 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full Other European Leagues boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,176 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category28 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $6,326 | before 53%in play 47%, over 96 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 min before the start | 2 h 50to the end, median over 325 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.20135% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 135% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 95 of 96 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +14.2 | +0.15 | 57c | +23% | 63 |
The 96 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 96 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $2,535 | before 29%in play 71%, over 97 WNBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 9 min after the start | 2 h 23to the end, median over 300 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.10128% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 128% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 94 of 97 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +7.4 | +0.08 | 56c | +9.1% | 57 |
The 97 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 97 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $10,952 | before 36%in play 64%, over 298 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 8 min after the start | 3 h 53to the end, median over 915 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | +0.09148% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 148% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 278 of 298 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 298 | 64.1%191 W · 107 L | +18.7 | +0.06 | 58c | +8.4% | 56 |
The 298 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 298 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $19,889 | before 46%in play 54%, over 204 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 min after the start | 3 h 07to the end, median over 585 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.10170% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 170% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 193 of 204 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | +12.4 | +0.06 | 54c | +2.7% | 56 |
The 204 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 204 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $4,861 | before 24%in play 76%, over 142 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 15 min after the start | 3 h 36to the end, median over 522 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.12206% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 206% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 134 of 142 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 142 | 68.3%97 W · 45 L | +8.2 | +0.06 | 63c | +10.9% | 55 |
The 142 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 142 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| AI Inactivelast settled Jul 31, 2026, EDT | $236 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.84129% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 129% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3 | +0.65 | 35c | +390.6% | 55 |
The 2 picks behind AI are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFClast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $512 | —too few: 6 picks | 1 h 00to the end, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.23108% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 108% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 6 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3 | +0.21 | 62c | +31.4% | 55 |
The 6 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled Sep 6, 2026, EDT | $7,529 | before 39%in play 61%, over 207 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 15 min after the start | 3 h 35to the end, median over 615 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06140% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 140% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 201 of 207 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 207 | 60.4%125 W · 82 L | +8.9 | +0.04 | 56c | +5.7% | 54 |
The 207 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 207 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennislast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $23,821 | before 17%in play 83%, over 464 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 33 min after the start | 1 h 42to the end, median over 1,522 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0395% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 460 of 466 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 466 | 55.6%259 W · 207 L | +15.8 | +0.03 | 52c | -0.9% | 54 |
The 466 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 466 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagues Inactivelast settled Sep 21, 2026, EDT | $23,713 | before 29%in play 71%, over 469 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min after the start | 3 h 38to the end, median over 1,256 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08309% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 309% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 443 of 469 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 469 | 60.8%285 W · 184 L | +11.7 | +0.02 | 58c | -1.3% | 53 |
The 469 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 469 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $7,745 | before 9%in play 91%, over 161 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 16 after the start | 2 h 32to the end, median over 300 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 21 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03110% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 110% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 159 of 161 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 161 | 64%103 W · 58 L | +4.1 | +0.03 | 61c | +1.6% | 52 |
The 161 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 161 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLB Inactivelast settled Sep 22, 2026, EDT | $10,786 | before 29%in play 71%, over 359 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 29 min after the start | 2 h 22to the end, median over 1,264 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03155% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 155% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 339 of 359 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 359 | 57.4%206 W · 153 L | +6.4 | +0.02 | 56c | -0.4% | 52 |
The 359 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 359 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $135 | —no start of play | 10 dresells, median over 11 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0990% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 90% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3 | +0.10 | 56c | +13.8% | 51 |
The 3 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mls Inactivelast settled Sep 18, 2026, EDT | $6,417 | before 83%in play 17%, over 104 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 50 min before the start | 3 h 48to the end, median over 356 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01121% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 121% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 101 of 104 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +0.7 | +0.01 | 58c | -1.3% | 51 |
The 104 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 104 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled Aug 30, 2026, EDT | $2,375 | before 52%in play 48%, over 42 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 min before the start | 2 h 10to the end, median over 131 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.031525% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 1525% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 41 of 42 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.1 | 0.00 | 50c | -8.5% | 50 |
The 42 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 42 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast settled Sep 1, 2026, EDT | $38 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.04 | 54c | -26.8% | 50 |
The 2 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $19,056 | before 51%in play 49%, over 219 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 min before the start | 3 h 37to the end, median over 599 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 194 of 219 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -3.0 | -0.01 | 52c | -6% | 49 |
The 219 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 219 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Weather Inactivelast settled Sep 20, 2026, EDT | $16 | —too few: 1 pick | 21 h 46to the end, median over 46 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.58no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6 | -0.57 | 57c | -100% | 48 |
The 1 picks behind Weather are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Aug 4, 2026, EDT | $13 | —too few: 1 pick | 5 h 40to the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.65no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7 | -0.66 | 66c | -100% | 47 |
The 1 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorant Inactivelast settled Aug 13, 2026, EDT | $96 | —too few: 4 picks | 3 h 10to the end, median over 17 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.18no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8 | -0.20 | 45c | -37.7% | 47 |
The 4 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast settled Aug 19, 2026, EDT | $13 | —no start of play | 8 dresells, median over 16 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 15 of them sold before the market settled | -0.77no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8 | -0.79 | 79c | -100% | 47 |
The 1 picks behind Crypto Milestones are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lol Inactivelast settled Sep 19, 2026, EDT | $1,147 | before 43%in play 57%, over 51 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 23 min after the start | 4 h 44to the end, median over 176 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 49 of 51 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.6 | -0.05 | 54c | -12.6% | 46 |
The 51 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 51 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast settled Sep 20, 2026, EDT | $2,654 | before 25%in play 75%, over 57 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 17 min after the start | 2 h 33to the end, median over 136 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 55 of 57 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.8 | -0.07 | 50c | -18.4% | 45 |
The 57 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 57 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politics Inactivelast settled Oct 5, 2026, EDT | $37 | —no start of play | 11 dresells, median over 23 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | -0.62no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3 | -0.63 | 63c | -100% | 45 |
The 2 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesliga Inactivelast settled Sep 6, 2026, EDT | $1,148 | before 21%in play 79%, over 28 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 40 min after the start | 3 h 23to the end, median over 92 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 26 of 28 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.6 | -0.09 | 48c | -31.9% | 45 |
The 28 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 28 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $3,609 | before 38%in play 62%, over 29 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 17 min after the start | 3 h 25to the end, median over 92 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 29 of 29 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.7 | -0.09 | 51c | -21.2% | 45 |
The 29 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 29 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $2,231 | before 9%in play 91%, over 46 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 04 after the start | 2 h 34to the end, median over 125 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 38 of 46 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.9 | -0.09 | 48c | -22.1% | 44 |
The 46 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 46 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled Sep 20, 2026, EDT | $5,845 | before 62%in play 38%, over 79 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 53 min before the start | 3 h 06to the end, median over 186 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 72 of 79 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -6.5 | -0.08 | 49c | -27.2% | 43 |
The 79 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 3,176 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 79 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 2
- What they are worth now
- $1,808bought for $1,724
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $0
Its 2 running positions
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 1,532 | 79c | 84c | $1,279 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 604 | 85c | 88c | $529 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 (we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet at exactly that number is holding more than we counted). These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulln: Norbert Gombos vs Alexander Wagner (opens in a new tab)backed Alexander Wagner · settled | 277 | 9c | $0 | Counted |
| Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Genoa CFC · settled | 124 | 79c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x53d9…7facbacked outcome 1 | 121.24 | 81c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0x41bc…efddbacked outcome 0 | 95.98 | 56c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0x717d…17bebacked outcome 0 | 91 | 64c | $0 | Not read yet |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above. 3 are not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.