Wallet 0x3654…1b78
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x3654e2c92f08f722e8983db1f5d48c8962bf1b78
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 153
- What they are worth now
- $2,144
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 48
bought for $2,049
worth $5
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 153, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5)backed Juventus FC | 307shares | 68c | 99c | $302 |
| Monterrey Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Anna Bondarbacked Cristina Bucsa | 237shares | 74c | 96c | $226 |
| Monterrey Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Kimberly Birrellbacked Darja Vidmanova | 170shares | 61c | 67c | $113 |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Rio Noguchibacked Yunchaokete Bu | 245.3shares | 74c | 37c | $90 |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-26?backed No | 172shares | 49c | 50c | $85 |
| Will Boca Juniors de Cali win on 2026-08-25?backed No | 76shares | 75c | 100c | $76 |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-08-30?backed No | 117shares | 62c | 63c | $73 |
| Will Bogota FC win on 2026-08-25?backed Yes | 58.99shares | 68c | 97c | $57 |
| Will CR Brasil win on 2026-08-25?backed No | 76shares | 74c | 74c | $56 |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5backed Over | 106shares | 45c | 46c | $48 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 48. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0xc7c4…0a0ebacked outcome 1 | 10.42shares | 48c | $5 | Not ingested |
| Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)backed Genoa CFC · resolved | 124shares | 79c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x53d9…7facbacked outcome 1 | 121.24shares | 81c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x41bc…efddbacked outcome 0 | 95.98shares | 56c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Roehampton 2: Tiago Cacao vs Fabrizio Andalorobacked Tiago Cacao · resolved | 93shares | 2c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 does — the wallet holds a scored pick on that market, already in the table below. 1 never will: TailMyPicks scored that market and this wallet’s position on it did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 3 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 2,280
- Categories scored
- 23
- Categories below 50
- 7
Best Category: Champions League, grading 66 out of 100 (+0.15 per pick).
Best Category Champions League at 66 out of 100; worst Serie A at 42.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,280 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 316 | 54.4%172 W · 144 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| MLBlast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagueslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 244 | 66%161 W · 83 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| La Ligalast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 152 | 60.5%92 W · 60 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Mlslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| WNBAlast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Serie Alast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 45 | 82.2%37 W · 8 L | +10.2wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Bundesligalast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| NFLlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Valorantlast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +390.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.