TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x391d…def1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
3,318
Categories scored
51
Categories below 50
35

Best Category: La Liga, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 56 out of 100; worst Cricket at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.

The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 3,318 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT46824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT28842.7%123 W · 165 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennislast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT25433.5%85 W · 169 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2last resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT20440.7%83 W · 121 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT13840.6%56 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT13432.1%43 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT13327.1%36 W · 97 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT12927.9%36 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10848.1%52 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT977.2%7 W · 90 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT8940.4%36 W · 53 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
MLBlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT8530.6%26 W · 59 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT8435.7%30 W · 54 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT7722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT7722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT7025.7%18 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT6934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT5935.6%21 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST5324.5%13 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT5111.8%6 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT5034%17 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT5030%15 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT4721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4235.7%15 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT4027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT3912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politicslast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT3525.7%9 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT3234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT2920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Mls Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2536%9 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT1816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT180%0 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
F1 Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT1811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-83%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-80.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Golf Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-70.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-87.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-82%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.