MenuTailMyPicks

Check another

55

Wallet 0x4272…4a17

Rebuilt .

Best in Champions League390 qualified picks$77,593 staked12 of 18 categories below 50first seen Jun 11, 2026, EDT

Score by category

The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.18 categories, best first

Parlays in detail

42-0.07 edge/pickSee the full Parlays board
Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
124
Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
12.1% 15 W · 109 L
vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
-10.5
Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
-0.08
Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
21c
ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
-36%
StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
$21,787
When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
—no start of play
HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
—no market to hold
At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
—no market price
Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
Nov 4, 2026, EST

If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast

You’d be -$1,886.15 tailing 41 Parlays picks (1 W · 40 L) at $50 each: -92% per pick.

A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Parlays picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet. It counts the picks settled from Oct 9, 2026, EDT until the nightly update of Nov 8, 2026, EST.

Parlays picks

SettledTicketResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Nov 4, 2026, ESTFC Tōkyō vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 2.5 AND Kawasaki Frontale vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)35c$133-100%-$132.6
Nov 3, 2026, ESTTigres FC vs. Real Cundinamarca: O/U 1.5 AND Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 AND FC Porto vs. PSV: PSV O/U 0.53 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)16c$38-100%-$37.8
Nov 3, 2026, ESTFC Porto vs. PSV: O/U 2.5 AND Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 AND Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5 AND VfB Stuttgart vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.55 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)6c$82-100%-$81.8
Nov 1, 2026, ESTTromsø IL vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 2.5 AND FC København vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5 AND Juventus FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 AND Málaga CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 AND Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.55 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)6c$76-100%-$75.7
Nov 1, 2026, ESTGIF Sundsvall vs. IFK Varnamo: O/U 2.5 AND AFC Bournemouth vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 AND ACF Fiorentina vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.53 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)16c$511-100%-$511.2
Nov 1, 2026, ESTChelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 AND Kasımpaşa SK vs. Samsunspor: O/U 2.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)17c$153-100%-$152.6
Oct 31, 2026, EDTHannover 96 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5 AND Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Swansea City AFC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)4 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)13c$151-100%-$151
Oct 31, 2026, EDTBrentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) AND 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5 AND Swansea City AFC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) AND Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.56 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)5c$152-100%-$152
Oct 30, 2026, EDTRaptors vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 AND Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 225.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)31c$163-100%-$162.8
Oct 29, 2026, EDTThunder vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 AND Spread: Knicks (-4.5)2 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)32c$38-100%-$38
Oct 29, 2026, EDTOlympique de Marseille vs. Olympiakós SFP: O/U 2.5 AND Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň: O/U 2.5 AND GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. RSC Anderlecht: O/U 2.5 AND RC Celta de Vigo vs. Juventus FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners4 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)11c$115-100%-$114.9
Oct 29, 2026, EDTKF Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5 AND KKS Lech Poznań vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 AND Kuopion PS vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 2.5 AND FC Red Bull Salzburg vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 AND Olympique Lyonnais vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 AND Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-10-15?6 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)4c$151-100%-$151
Oct 28, 2026, EDTHornets vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 AND Nets vs. Heat: O/U 231.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)34c$594-100%-$593.5
Oct 28, 2026, EDTJK Narva Trans vs. FC Kuressaare: O/U 2.5 AND Stroemmen IF vs. Aasane Fotball: O/U 3.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)29c$152-100%-$151.9
Oct 27, 2026, EDTClub Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 AND Viking FK vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 AND Arsenal FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 1.53 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)17c$151-100%-$150.9
Oct 27, 2026, EDTRB Leipzig vs. PSV: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) AND Arsenal FC vs. Lille OSC: 1st Half O/U 0.53 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)11c$151-100%-$151
Oct 27, 2026, EDTRB Leipzig vs. PSV: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) AND Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) AND Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.54 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)10c$152-100%-$152
Oct 27, 2026, EDTAl Sadd SC vs. Al Hilal SFC: O/U 2.5 AND Sabah FK vs. SK Slavia Praha: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Austria vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.53 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)24c$151-100%-$150.6
Oct 27, 2026, EDTSlovenia vs. Turkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Serbia vs. Finland: O/U 2.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)29c$152-100%-$152.1
Oct 27, 2026, EDTBuriram United vs. Beijing Guoan: O/U 2.5 AND Cong An Ha Noi FC vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)28c$151-100%-$151
Oct 27, 2026, EDTFC Pohang Steelers vs. Johor Darul Ta'zim: O/U 2.5 AND Cong An Ha Noi FC vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5 AND Kyoto Sanga FC vs. Ratchaburi FC: O/U 2.53 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)15c$152-100%-$152
Oct 25, 2026, EDTVfL Bochum vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5 AND FC Andorra vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)33c$151-100%-$151.4
Oct 25, 2026, EDTIwaki FC vs. Blaublitz Akita: O/U 2.5 AND Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Albirex Niigata: O/U 2.5 AND Tōkyō Verdy vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.53 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)14c$188-100%-$188
Oct 25, 2026, EDTGwangju FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: O/U 3.5 AND Kataller Toyama vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki: O/U 2.5 AND Tōkyō Verdy vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 AND Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-10-11?4 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)12c$189-100%-$188.7
Oct 24, 2026, EDT1. FC Nürnberg vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5 AND Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 3.52 legsDid not (open this parlay on its own page)26c$420-100%-$420
Showing 25 of 124 parlays, newest first.A parlay pays a dollar a share only if every leg wins, and its Entry is the price of the whole ticket, market maker’s margin included. That is why most of the Parlays board sits below 50, and why that is normal, not a board full of bad forecasters.
About this page

What is a Tail Score?

A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.

The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry figures of each category tell the two apart.

The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.

Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why this page scores each category on its own rather than as one blended number.

Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.