Wallet 0x4337…8882
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x43372356634781eea88d61bbdd7824cdce958882
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$16,586,786 staked over 5,355 qualified picks in 54 categories, 32 of 54 below 50.
Best category
Bundesliga
$177,949 staked over 32 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.14 per pick.
See the full Bundesliga boardSecond best
MLB
$516,562 staked over 92 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.09 per pick.
See the full MLB boardThird best
NBA
$911,814 staked over 165 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full NBA boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 5,355 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category54 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga Inactivelast settled Oct 10, 2026, EDT | $177,949 | before 100%in play 0%, over 32 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min before the start | 4 h 56to the end, median over 46 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.2497% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 97% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 31 of 32 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +8.0 | +0.25 | 41c | +57.1% | 66 |
The 32 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 32 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $516,562 | before 98%in play 2%, over 88 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 41 min before the start | 5 h 17to the end, median over 107 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1297% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 97% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 78 of 92 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +10.9 | +0.12 | 53c | +22.3% | 60 |
The 92 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 92 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $911,814 | before 94%in play 6%, over 141 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 25 min before the start | 4 h 50to the end, median over 306 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 68 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0698% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 131 of 165 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +9.5 | +0.06 | 46c | +11.9% | 56 |
The 165 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 165 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1last settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $198,475 | before 100%in play 0%, over 36 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 26 min before the start | 5 h 33to the end, median over 43 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.09103% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 103% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 28 of 36 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0 | +0.08 | 39c | +24.7% | 55 |
The 36 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 36 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $877,845 | before 95%in play 5%, over 152 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 58 before the start | 9 h 00to the end, median over 301 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 32 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 90 of 189 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | +10.3 | +0.05 | 44c | +5.4% | 55 |
The 189 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 189 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $292,121 | before 93%in play 7%, over 44 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 31 min before the start | 5 h 35to the end, median over 65 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0689% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 89% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 44 of 46 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.0 | +0.07 | 43c | +8.6% | 55 |
The 46 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 46 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $400,504 | before 93%in play 7%, over 89 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 14 before the start | 7 h 43to the end, median over 123 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 14 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0596% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 96% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 57 of 89 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +4.6 | +0.05 | 45c | +7% | 55 |
The 89 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 89 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Sep 29, 2026, EDT | $142,483 | before 100%in play 0%, over 21 WNBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 14 min before the start | 3 h 09to the end, median over 28 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0795% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 15 of 24 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.8 | +0.08 | 55c | +12.6% | 54 |
The 24 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 24 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| F1 Inactivelast settled May 24, 2026, EDT | $27,273 | —too few: 2 picks | 3 dto the end, median over 24 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1094% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4 | +0.11 | 28c | -3.8% | 54 |
The 13 picks behind F1 are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 13 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle Eastlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $279,511 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 196 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 27 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 47% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 41 of 66 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2 | +0.05 | 27c | +21.3% | 54 |
The 66 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 66 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Golf Inactivelast settled Jul 19, 2026, EDT | $7,075 | —too few: 9 picks | 4 dto the end, median over 34 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.13108% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 108% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 7 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2 | +0.12 | 38c | +54% | 54 |
The 10 picks behind Golf are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NHLlast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $1,778,298 | before 85%in play 15%, over 227 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 20 min before the start | 5 h 17to the end, median over 256 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 53 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0284% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 84% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 210 of 233 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +6.9 | +0.03 | 49c | +6.1% | 53 |
The 233 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 233 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $325,848 | before 81%in play 19%, over 90 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 44 before the start | 2 dto the end, median over 204 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 25 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0392% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 92% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 50 of 131 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.8 | +0.03 | 41c | -2.6% | 53 |
The 131 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 131 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $321,384 | before 94%in play 6%, over 48 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 04 before the start | 5 h 51to the end, median over 76 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0295% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 33 of 48 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.2 | +0.02 | 50c | +0.4% | 52 |
The 48 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 48 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $4,874 | —no start of play | 9 dto the end, median over 79 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | +0.04154% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 154% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 15 of 46 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.1 | +0.02 | 39c | -8.8% | 52 |
The 46 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 46 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $786,621 | before 96%in play 4%, over 123 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 42 before the start | 6 h 43to the end, median over 267 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 25 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 62% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 97 of 152 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | +2.7 | +0.02 | 42c | +1.2% | 52 |
The 152 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 152 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ukraine Inactivelast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT | $3,716 | —no start of play | 34 dto the end, median over 36 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 71% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 2 of 11 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3 | +0.02 | 16c | -66.2% | 51 |
The 11 picks behind Ukraine are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 11 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $498,364 | before 73%in play 27%, over 166 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 20 before the start | 7 h 11to the end, median over 233 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 20% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 112 of 179 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 179 | 43%77 W · 102 L | +1.2 | +0.01 | 42c | -5.8% | 51 |
The 179 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 179 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Token Launcheslast settled Oct 10, 2026, EDT | $102,979 | —no start of play | 30 dto the end, median over 351 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 38 of 136 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 136 | 33.8%46 W · 90 L | +0.9 | +0.01 | 33c | -36.2% | 51 |
The 136 picks behind Token Launches are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 136 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $5,267 | —no start of play | 14 dto the end, median over 186 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 26 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0193% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 93% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 24 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2 | +0.01 | 16c | -53.1% | 51 |
The 24 picks behind Crypto Milestones are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 24 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Earningslast settled Oct 13, 2026, EDT | $471 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 19 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01139% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 139% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1 | +0.01 | 29c | -43.7% | 50 |
The 10 picks behind Earnings are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Politicslast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $20,851 | —no start of play | 25 dto the end, median over 303 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 25 of 76 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 28c | +10.7% | 50 |
The 76 picks behind Us Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 76 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast settled Jan 4, 2026, EST | $381 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 25 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 22c | -18.3% | 50 |
The 9 picks behind Stocks are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorantlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $437,696 | before 81%in play 19%, over 336 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 02 before the start | 9 h 46to the end, median over 498 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 16 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 148 of 395 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 395 | 44.1%174 W · 221 L | -0.3 | 0.00 | 44c | +0.5% | 50 |
The 395 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 395 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Commodities Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $675 | —no start of play | 23 dto the end, median over 17 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1 | -0.01 | 30c | -16.4% | 50 |
The 7 picks behind Commodities are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 7 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lollast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $3,196,307 | before 77%in play 23%, over 1,217 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 32 before the start | 9 h 00to the end, median over 1,688 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 171 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 779 of 1,292 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,292 | 36.3%469 W · 823 L | -4.8 | 0.00 | 37c | -6.3% | 50 |
The 1,292 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,292 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Weather Inactivelast settled Nov 1, 2024, EDT | $10 | —no start of play | 6 dto the end, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.10 | 10c | -100% | 50 |
The 1 picks behind Weather are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Music Inactivelast settled Sep 28, 2026, EDT | $11,396 | —no start of play | 6 dto the end, median over 109 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 14 of 51 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.6 | -0.01 | 42c | -31.5% | 49 |
The 51 picks behind Music are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 51 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Venezuela Inactivelast settled Jan 3, 2026, EST | $10,216 | —no start of play | 13 dto the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3 | -0.14 | 64c | -36.9% | 49 |
The 2 picks behind Venezuela are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast settled Mar 29, 2026, EDT | $629,321 | before 95%in play 5%, over 88 Ncaa Basketball picks with a start of play; typically bought 22 min before the start | 5 h 24to the end, median over 106 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 82 of 100 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4 | -0.01 | 46c | -4.9% | 49 |
The 100 picks behind Ncaa Basketball are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 100 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Movies Inactivelast settled Sep 8, 2026, EDT | $7,289 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 233 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 13 of 50 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -1.0 | -0.02 | 32c | -39.9% | 48 |
The 50 picks behind Movies are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 50 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| China Taiwanlast settled Sep 30, 2026, EDT | $4,319 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 53 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 11 of 21 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.6 | -0.03 | 27c | -24.4% | 48 |
The 21 picks behind China Taiwan are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 21 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Macro Indicatorslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $2,586 | —no start of play | 28 dto the end, median over 32 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6 | -0.04 | 57c | +56.9% | 48 |
The 15 picks behind Macro Indicators are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 15 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2last settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $1,696,206 | before 79%in play 21%, over 897 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 40 before the start | 8 h 13to the end, median over 1,233 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 86 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 448 of 979 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 979 | 42.1%412 W · 567 L | -14.7 | -0.02 | 44c | -1.2% | 48 |
The 979 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 979 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Olympicslast settled Feb 22, 2026, EST | $23,670 | —too few: 8 picks | 4 h 35to the end, median over 11 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6 | -0.07 | 19c | -72.6% | 48 |
The 8 picks behind Olympics are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| IPOlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $5,557 | —no start of play | 19 dto the end, median over 47 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 8 of 21 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8 | -0.04 | 28c | -40.5% | 48 |
The 21 picks behind IPO are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 21 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tweets Inactivelast settled Sep 28, 2026, EDT | $597 | —no start of play | 2 dto the end, median over 119 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 11 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8 | -0.07 | 34c | -63.7% | 48 |
The 11 picks behind Tweets are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 11 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Jun 14, 2024, EDT | $218 | —no start of play | 22 h 07to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.32no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6 | -0.32 | 32c | -100% | 47 |
The 2 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Poker Inactivelast settled Dec 3, 2025, EST | $854 | —no start of play | 22 h 45to the end, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8 | -0.15 | 35c | -74.7% | 47 |
The 5 picks behind Poker are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Euroleague Inactivelast settled Oct 8, 2026, EDT | $24,939 | —too few: 1 pick | 3 h 15to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.67no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7 | -0.67 | 67c | -100% | 47 |
The 1 picks behind Euroleague are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled Sep 3, 2026, EDT | $9,574 | —too few: 4 picks | 6 h 27to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.20no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8 | -0.20 | 45c | -58.3% | 47 |
The 4 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Space Inactivelast settled Mar 1, 2025, EST | $380 | —no start of play | 92 dto the end, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.17no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8 | -0.17 | 37c | -66.3% | 47 |
The 5 picks behind Space are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Chess Inactivelast settled Dec 12, 2024, EST | $491 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 30 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.17no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0 | -0.17 | 33c | -73.5% | 46 |
The 6 picks behind Chess are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mlslast settled Oct 14, 2026, EDT | $41,868 | before 100%in play 0%, over 20 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 46 min before the start | 5 h 52to the end, median over 36 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 13 of 20 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6 | -0.08 | 33c | -23.6% | 46 |
The 20 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 20 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politicslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $4,655 | —no start of play | 15 dto the end, median over 133 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 12 of 48 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.8 | -0.06 | 33c | -6% | 46 |
The 48 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 48 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Oct 9, 2026, EDT | $148,649 | before 70%in play 30%, over 23 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 10 min before the start | 5 h 00to the end, median over 68 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 21 of 33 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4 | -0.07 | 50c | -24.1% | 45 |
The 33 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 33 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Midtermslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $6,963 | —no start of play | 19 dto the end, median over 79 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 19 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 9 of 39 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.9 | -0.07 | 23c | -40.6% | 45 |
The 39 picks behind Us Midterms are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 39 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Boxing Inactivelast settled Jun 29, 2025, EDT | $1,386 | —no start of play | 40 dto the end, median over 30 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7 | -0.14 | 48c | -43.1% | 45 |
The 12 picks behind Boxing are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 12 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $405,689 | before 97%in play 3%, over 62 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 29 min before the start | 6 h 20to the end, median over 89 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 14 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 57 of 76 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -5.3 | -0.07 | 39c | -36.8% | 44 |
The 76 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 76 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| AIlast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $16,896 | —no start of play | 39 dto the end, median over 174 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 19 of 67 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -4.9 | -0.07 | 36c | -27.2% | 44 |
The 67 picks behind AI are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 67 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast settled Oct 9, 2026, EDT | $2,653 | —too few: 5 picks | 5 h 31to the end, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.36no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8 | -0.36 | 36c | -100% | 43 |
The 5 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFC Inactivelast settled Jun 20, 2026, EDT | $82,906 | —too few: 8 picks | 13 h 19to the end, median over 28 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 11 of 25 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.0 | -0.12 | 52c | -23.5% | 43 |
The 25 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 25 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagues Inactivelast settled Oct 12, 2026, EDT | $28,176 | before 71%in play 29%, over 14 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 15 min before the start | 5 h 15to the end, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.16no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 11 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5 | -0.18 | 39c | -30.2% | 43 |
The 14 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 2, 2026, EDT | $2,103,981 | before 93%in play 7%, over 166 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 34 min before the start | 3 h 48to the end, median over 462 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 24 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 169 of 223 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 223 | 36.8%82 W · 141 L | -18.2 | -0.08 | 45c | -13.9% | 42 |
The 223 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 5,355 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 223 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 1,303
- What they are worth now
- $1,179,187bought for $1,107,142
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 1,303, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 458,673 | 95c | 98c | $448,353 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 150,000 | 50c | 79c | $119,175 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 77,777 | 85c | 81c | $62,610 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 60,043 | 84c | 95c | $56,741 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 34,145 | 85c | 99c | $33,786 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 150,000 | 50c | 21c | $30,825 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 30,522 | 63c | 92c | $27,927 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 27,102 | 51c | 95c | $25,639 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 27,625 | 74c | 92c | $25,277 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 20,375 | 34c | 96c | $19,642 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 (we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet at exactly that number is holding more than we counted). These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 444,444 | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 263,332 | 33c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0x0a8d…76d9backed outcome 0 | 57,556 | 1c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 55,555 | 6c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 46,822 | 2c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 4 never will. TailMyPicks scored those markets, and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar: too small, bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 1 is not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.