Wallet 0x43bd…beda
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x43bd51535d5af64988bd63393ee52a49d563beda
Rebuilt .
Tailer profilescored on resolved markets · held to resolution
$2,193 staked over 132 qualified picks in 3 Categories — 1 of 3 below 50.
Best Category
Weather
$2,139 staked over 128 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.11 per pick.
See the full Weather boardSecond best
World Politics
$39 staked over 3 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.02 per pick.
See the full World Politics boardThird best
CS2
$15 staked over 1 qualified picks
Below the line at -0.03 per pick — 50 means no edge at all.
See the full CS2 boardIf you had taileda hypothetical — not a forecast
You’d be +$1,592.07 tailing 128 Weather picks (86 W · 42 L) at $50 each — +24.9% per pick.
A hypothetical, worked out from this wallet’s own qualified Weather picks and nothing else: $50 on each one, held to resolution, bought at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks charges inside its score. It is what those picks did, not what the next one will do, and it is before whatever your venue charges you to trade.
Record by Category3 Categories
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category this row is the record in, with the day its most recent pick resolved under it. Days are US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. INACTIVE: A wallet is Inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days that category resolved something. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here — it only leaves the default leaderboard and, if it was in the top fifty and its score would still place it there, still reaches the feed.
- Weight
- The money this wallet put behind its qualified picks in this category — what it actually risked, rather than how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. It is never added to anything in the live account below: different populations, measured on different days.
- Lead
- How long before a market's nominal end this wallet typically takes its position here: the median, over its qualified picks in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on to the market's end as Polymarket recorded it. Only markets that lived under 48 hours count — on a season-long market, how early somebody bet says how old the market was, not how they bet — and under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The word compares this wallet with the other wallets measured in the same category, because two hours is late for tennis and early for basketball: LATE is later than three quarters of them, EARLY earlier than three quarters, TYPICAL the half between. IN PLAY means the first buy usually landed after the nominal end, which is a bet placed while the match runs — so its figure is a distance AFTER the end, where every other word's is before it. The count of picks the median rests on, and which side of the end it is, sit on the word: hover it, or read the row's payload. It is the distance to the END, not to the kick-off, so it cannot tell two hours before a three-hour match from the 40th minute.
- Holds
- How long this wallet typically keeps what it buys here: the median, over EVERY pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on to the sale of those shares — or to the market's resolution where it never sold them. It is the opposite question to Lead: Lead says when the wallet got IN, this says how long it STAYED, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick and not only the qualified ones, deliberately: a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would otherwise be judged on the half that flatters it. Under 1 min the wallet is left out of this category's ranking — not because the edge is not real, but because nobody could follow it: we can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lives six is gone before you are told about it.
- Qualified picks
- Every Pick this wallet made in this category that is large enough to be a real opinion and cheap enough that a follower could still have realised the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- The share of this wallet's qualified picks whose outcome won, with the wins and the losses beside it — 62% of eleven and 62% of eleven hundred are not the same claim. Held to resolution: a pick is graded on the market's winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand. No board is ranked by this: favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the entry prices already implied. Counted in wins: +8 means eight more than the prices this wallet paid were pricing in. It is the number that separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, once the worse entry price a follower gets is charged against it. The raw edge is what the wallet got; this is what copying it would have got. Edge that vanishes at two cents of slippage was never sellable.
- Avg entry
- The price this wallet paid, in cents, averaged across its qualified picks and weighted by how much it put on each. Buys only — selling out later does not change it. 88c beside a 90% win rate is a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The mean return on one pick, held to resolution, with every pick counted the same regardless of size. That equal weighting is the point: it is what tells a record earned across many picks apart from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number a wallet is ranked by in a category: its edge per pick, shrunk toward zero so that a short lucky run cannot outrank a long record, then graded out of 100 on a ruler that never moves. No edge at all grades 50, and a grade screenshotted today still means the same thing in six months. The scale itself is published with the figures it grades; this page holds no copy of it.
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 139
- What they are worth now
- $587bought for $625
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 47worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 139, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a count of shares and not a sum of money — what they are worth is the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price over what the wallet still holds. It is NOT the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked — the two answer different questions and are not the same number.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would fetch at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. A position the Venue has said nothing about is printed as not priced rather than as a zero, because a zero there would be a measurement nobody took.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on October 5? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 21.69 | 72c | 100c | $22 |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on October 5? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 25.01 | 46c | 85c | $21 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on October 5? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 20.76 | 62c | 100c | $21 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 6? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 23.52 | 73c | 83c | $20 |
| Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on October 5? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 19.2 | 53c | 100c | $19 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 5? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 24.42 | 78c | 77c | $19 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on October 5? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 22.86 | 63c | 59c | $13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 5? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 20.69 | 68c | 63c | $13 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on October 5? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 20.13 | 45c | 61c | $12 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 6? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 13.36 | 84c | 86c | $11 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 47. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a count of shares and not a sum of money — what they are worth is the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price over what the wallet still holds. It is NOT the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked — the two answer different questions and are not the same number.
- Worth
- What those shares would fetch at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. A position the Venue has said nothing about is printed as not priced rather than as a zero, because a zero there would be a measurement nobody took.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on September 12? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · resolved | 74.19 | 29c | $0 | Counted |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on October 1? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · resolved | 42.06 | 23c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on October 1? (opens in a new tab)backed No · resolved | 29.52 | 25c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on September 19? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · resolved | 28.09 | 22c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 1? (opens in a new tab)backed No · resolved | 24.01 | 74c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above. 3 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away.
These figures and the record above never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.