Wallet 0x4959…a6f5
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4959175440b8f38229b32f2f036057f6893ea6f5
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 127
- What they are worth now
- $629
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 0
bought for $744
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 127, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?backed No | 300shares | 78c | 78c | $234 |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?backed No | 88.1shares | 88c | 88c | $77 |
| Market 0xf2be…0fc9backed outcome 1 | 10shares | 87c | 93c | $9 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?backed No | 8.96shares | 98c | 98c | $9 |
| Market 0xdc5c…0ca7backed outcome 1 | 24.29shares | 23c | 35c | $9 |
| Market 0x4c3d…38adbacked outcome 1 | 8.8shares | 87c | 83c | $7 |
| Market 0x08cf…a82cbacked outcome 1 | 7.1shares | 95c | 97c | $7 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?backed No | 8.98shares | 56c | 76c | $7 |
| Market 0x8bc2…b7f9backed outcome 1 | 6.88shares | 80c | 96c | $7 |
| Market 0x9098…af9dbacked outcome 1 | 7.08shares | 94c | 90c | $6 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 4,093
- Categories scored
- 51
- Categories below 50
- 15
Best Category: Tennis, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).
Best Category Tennis at 59 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 41.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 4,093 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| Musiclast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| UFC Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| Space Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.