Wallet 0x49c5…3de7
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x49c5845733fd0b83d2ae67bfc1baf9d2e3093de7
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$156,134 staked over 3,484 qualified picks in 20 categories, 12 of 20 below 50.
Best category
Bundesliga
$3,264 staked over 69 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.12 per pick.
See the full Bundesliga boardSecond best
Australian A League
$380 staked over 8 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full Australian A League boardThird best
Other European Leagues
$5,918 staked over 158 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full Other European Leagues boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,484 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category20 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $3,264 | before 100%in play 0%, over 69 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 50 before the start | 5 h 05to the end, median over 121 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1798% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 35 of 69 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +11.6 | +0.17 | 48c | +39.1% | 64 |
The 69 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 69 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Australian A Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $380 | —too few: 8 picks | 4 h 41to the end, median over 11 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1999% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5 | +0.19 | 43c | +23.9% | 55 |
The 8 picks behind Australian A League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $5,918 | before 99%in play 1%, over 158 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 58 min before the start | 6 h 35to the end, median over 378 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0494% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 84 of 158 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +7.2 | +0.05 | 52c | +11.4% | 54 |
The 158 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 158 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $4,582 | before 100%in play 0%, over 98 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 h 38 before the start | 11 h 50to the end, median over 255 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0394% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 43 of 98 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +3.4 | +0.03 | 50c | +1.8% | 53 |
The 98 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 98 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Sep 21, 2026, EDT | $209 | —too few: 9 picks | 11 h 40to the end, median over 47 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.07138% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 138% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5 | +0.05 | 50c | +2.4% | 52 |
The 9 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $2,975 | before 100%in play 0%, over 80 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 33 before the start | 7 h 00to the end, median over 248 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 57% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 45 of 80 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +0.9 | +0.01 | 54c | +5.1% | 51 |
The 80 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 80 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $9,994 | before 100%in play 0%, over 186 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 54 min before the start | 5 h 01to the end, median over 390 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 72% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 107 of 186 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +1.5 | +0.01 | 51c | -2.3% | 51 |
The 186 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 186 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $7,258 | before 100%in play 0%, over 126 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 46 before the start | 6 h 50to the end, median over 199 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 38% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 78 of 126 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +0.7 | +0.01 | 49c | -7.7% | 51 |
The 126 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 126 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $8,378 | before 100%in play 0%, over 192 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 h 18 before the start | 9 h 01to the end, median over 439 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 85 of 192 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | -2.7 | -0.01 | 53c | +1.6% | 49 |
The 192 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 192 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $4,964 | before 100%in play 0%, over 86 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 h 20 before the start | 7 h 57to the end, median over 138 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 42 of 86 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -1.5 | -0.02 | 44c | -5.9% | 48 |
The 86 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 86 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1last settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $1,669 | before 100%in play 0%, over 40 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 10 h 58 before the start | 9 h 50to the end, median over 63 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 17 of 40 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.0 | -0.02 | 52c | -11.7% | 48 |
The 40 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 40 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $49,168 | before 100%in play 0%, over 1,163 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 8 h 54 before the start | 10 h 40to the end, median over 2,366 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 25 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 416 of 1,163 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,163 | 49.4%574 W · 589 L | -18.2 | -0.02 | 51c | -2.7% | 48 |
The 1,163 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,163 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $1,274 | before 100%in play 0%, over 30 WNBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 26 h 06 before the start | 1 dto the end, median over 78 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 9 of 30 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.0 | -0.03 | 50c | -16.7% | 48 |
The 30 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 30 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennislast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $17,930 | before 76%in play 24%, over 581 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 13 before the start | 8 h 36to the end, median over 2,110 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 29 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 397 of 582 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 582 | 53.3%310 W · 272 L | -12.2 | -0.02 | 55c | -3.4% | 48 |
The 582 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 582 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFC Inactivelast settled Sep 20, 2026, EDT | $249 | —too few: 9 picks | 9 h 47to the end, median over 45 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0 | -0.11 | 55c | +3.2% | 47 |
The 9 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $9,917 | before 100%in play 0%, over 167 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 58 before the start | 6 h 46to the end, median over 276 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 20 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 99 of 167 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | -5.9 | -0.04 | 48c | -12.3% | 47 |
The 167 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 167 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $4,529 | before 99%in play 1%, over 112 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 h 54 before the start | 17 h 11to the end, median over 211 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 17 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 53 of 112 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -4.7 | -0.04 | 44c | +3.6% | 46 |
The 112 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 112 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $10,274 | before 100%in play 0%, over 191 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 h 31 before the start | 9 h 42to the end, median over 352 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 108 of 191 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -7.7 | -0.04 | 51c | -11.1% | 46 |
The 191 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 191 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mlslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $7,814 | before 100%in play 0%, over 109 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 56 min before the start | 3 h 44to the end, median over 174 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 75 of 109 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -6.0 | -0.05 | 50c | -12.9% | 45 |
The 109 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 109 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie Alast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $5,388 | before 100%in play 0%, over 69 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 54 before the start | 6 h 25to the end, median over 86 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 42 of 69 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.9 | -0.10 | 48c | -30.3% | 42 |
The 69 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 3,484 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 69 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 71
- What they are worth now
- $1,123bought for $1,102
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 45worth $80
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 71, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 342 | 18c | 32c | $108 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 144 | 75c | 75c | $107 |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 307 | 33c | 32c | $97 |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 110 | 59c | 59c | $64 |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 123 | 48c | 47c | $57 |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-25? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 142 | 38c | 37c | $52 |
| Spread: Saints (-17.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Steelers | 54 | 91c | 94c | $51 |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 83.01 | 62c | 54c | $44 |
| Bengals vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over | 50 | 70c | 70c | $35 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 62 | 42c | 42c | $26 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 45. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x1f8d…66b4backed outcome 1 | 70 | 61c | $35 | Not read yet |
| Market 0xaf54…d61abacked outcome 1 | 35 | 52c | $18 | Not read yet |
| Market 0xb5b5…8d19backed outcome 1 | 20 | 62c | $10 | Not read yet |
| Market 0xc1c0…41f7backed outcome 1 | 15 | 65c | $8 | Not read yet |
| Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 5 | 72c | $5 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 never will. TailMyPicks scored that market, and this wallet’s position on it did not clear the bar: too small, bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 4 are not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.