Wallet 0x4b8a…f4a4
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4b8ae011176b76888949476d7fb7a56985faf4a4
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 804
- What they are worth now
- $16,460
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 49
bought for $18,941
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 804, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?backed Yes | 860.62shares | 56c | 51c | $435 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?backed Yes | 384shares | 48c | 90c | $347 |
| Market 0x1ab7…067bbacked outcome 0 | 343.86shares | 85c | 96c | $330 |
| Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by September 30?backed No | 415.41shares | 69c | 73c | $303 |
| Market 0x3c04…49fbbacked outcome 0 | 551.92shares | 65c | 40c | $218 |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?backed No | 679.09shares | 58c | 32c | $214 |
| Will Trump say "God" this week?backed Yes | 242shares | 82c | 77c | $186 |
| Market 0x008e…e28ebacked outcome 1 | 195.56shares | 92c | 95c | $185 |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?backed Yes | 500shares | 13c | 31c | $153 |
| Will Elena Rybakina advance to the Semifinals in Women's Singles at the 2026 US Open?backed No | 191shares | 65c | 80c | $152 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 49. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed No · resolved | 300shares | 16c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0xce4d…94cfbacked outcome 0 | 289.61shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will Like a Prayer be the first song performed by Madonna at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed Yes · resolved | 202.17shares | 24c | $0 | Counted |
| Will Fabián Ruiz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · resolved | 197.87shares | 39c | $0 | Counted |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 30?backed Up · resolved | 122.31shares | 1c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 3 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 1 never will: TailMyPicks scored that market and this wallet’s position on it did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 1 is not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 2,317
- Categories scored
- 38
- Categories below 50
- 21
Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).
Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Commodities at 40.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 2,317 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| Earningslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Movieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| Weatherlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| AIlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| Chesslast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| F1last resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +140.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.