Wallet 0x4b8a…f4a4
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4b8ae011176b76888949476d7fb7a56985faf4a4
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$433,111 staked over 3,073 qualified picks in 43 categories, 25 of 43 below 50.
Best category
Ncaa Basketball
$112,829 staked over 185 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.07 per pick.
See the full Ncaa Basketball boardSecond best
Us Midterms
$4,620 staked over 30 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full Us Midterms boardThird best
China Taiwan
$501 staked over 9 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full China Taiwan boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,073 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category43 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast settled Apr 7, 2026, EDT | $112,829 | before 90%in play 10%, over 184 Ncaa Basketball picks with a start of play; typically bought 17 h 21 before the start | 8 h 47resells, median over 211 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 107 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08103% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 103% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 82 of 185 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | +14.2 | +0.08 | 49c | +15.8% | 57 |
The 185 picks behind Ncaa Basketball are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 185 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Midtermslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $4,620 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 47 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1098% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 9 of 30 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.0 | +0.10 | 43c | +18.4% | 56 |
The 30 picks behind Us Midterms are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 30 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| China Taiwanlast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT | $501 | —no start of play | 19 h 29to the end, median over 24 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1792% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 92% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7 | +0.19 | 48c | +35.4% | 56 |
The 9 picks behind China Taiwan are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier League Inactivelast settled Aug 17, 2026, EDT | $247 | —too few: 1 pick | 4 h 09resells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.3899% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2 | +0.39 | 28c | +140.1% | 55 |
The 3 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| F1 Inactivelast settled Aug 24, 2026, EDT | $932 | —too few: 6 picks | 4 dto the end, median over 74 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 62% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 8 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3 | +0.09 | 41c | -1.2% | 54 |
The 14 picks behind F1 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tweets Inactivelast settled Oct 5, 2026, EDT | $440 | —no start of play | 9 dto the end, median over 30 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0894% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2 | +0.09 | 56c | +19.5% | 53 |
The 14 picks behind Tweets are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $2,235 | —too few: 1 pick | 2 dto the end, median over 93 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05117% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 117% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 8 of 46 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.9 | +0.04 | 52c | +14.5% | 53 |
The 46 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 46 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Venezuela Inactivelast settled Jan 17, 2026, EST | $346 | —no start of play | 23 h 32resells, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1594% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6 | +0.16 | 59c | +5.1% | 52 |
The 4 picks behind Venezuela are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast settled Aug 28, 2026, EDT | $54 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.28100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6 | +0.28 | 72c | +39.4% | 52 |
The 2 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFC Inactivelast settled Sep 20, 2026, EDT | $98 | —no start of play | 16 h 41to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.51100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5 | +0.51 | 49c | +105.8% | 52 |
The 1 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $1,013 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 33 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 28 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06130% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 130% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 18 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8 | +0.05 | 45c | -7.5% | 52 |
The 18 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 18 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions League Inactivelast settled May 30, 2026, EDT | $4,013 | before 42%in play 58%, over 12 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 48 min after the start | 3 h 40resells, median over 22 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 14 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 51% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 12 of 16 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5 | +0.03 | 35c | -2% | 51 |
The 16 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 16 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mls Inactivelast settled Mar 11, 2026, EDT | $34 | —no start of play | 16 dresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.28100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3 | +0.28 | 72c | +38.9% | 51 |
The 1 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Chess Inactivelast settled Aug 15, 2026, EDT | $1,938 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 37 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 64% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 2 of 29 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6 | +0.02 | 57c | +2.7% | 51 |
The 29 picks behind Chess are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 29 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Weatherlast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $3,028 | before 18%in play 82%, over 44 Weather picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 21 after the start | 21 h 17to the end, median over 212 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 35 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03221% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 221% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 24 of 75 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.0 | +0.01 | 44c | -10.6% | 51 |
The 75 picks behind Weather are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 75 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Olympicslast settled Feb 21, 2026, EST | $15 | —no start of play | 9 h 00to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.25100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2 | +0.25 | 75c | +32.6% | 51 |
The 1 picks behind Olympics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLB Inactivelast settled Jul 15, 2026, EDT | $710 | —too few: 7 picks | 1 dto the end, median over 27 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02220% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 220% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 11 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1 | +0.01 | 53c | +0.7% | 50 |
The 15 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 15 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast settled Sep 6, 2026, EDT | $9,503 | before 12%in play 88%, over 60 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 29 min after the start | 4 h 23to the end, median over 130 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 39 of them sold before the market settled | +0.014466% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 4466% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 48 of 91 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 48c | -8.2% | 50 |
The 91 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 91 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast settled Sep 1, 2026, EDT | $30,803 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 1,055 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 404 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 40 of 442 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 442 | 39.6%175 W · 267 L | -2.2 | 0.00 | 40c | -11.3% | 49 |
The 442 picks behind Stocks are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 442 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lollast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $3,589 | before 36%in play 64%, over 25 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 17 min after the start | 5 dto the end, median over 85 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 21 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 18 of 52 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.5 | -0.01 | 41c | -6.1% | 49 |
The 52 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 52 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $957 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2 | -0.03 | 28c | -49.2% | 49 |
The 8 picks behind Macro Indicators are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Aug 14, 2026, EDT | $72,615 | before 9%in play 91%, over 105 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 28 min after the start | 1 dto the end, median over 1,215 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 174 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 285 of 765 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 765 | 45.9%351 W · 414 L | -11.0 | -0.01 | 47c | -0.2% | 48 |
The 765 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 765 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ukraine Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $1,300 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 42 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 17 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6 | -0.04 | 51c | -18.3% | 48 |
The 17 picks behind Ukraine are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 17 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politicslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $17,641 | —no start of play | 12 dto the end, median over 304 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 132 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 38 of 153 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 153 | 43.8%67 W · 86 L | -3.9 | -0.03 | 46c | -10.3% | 48 |
The 153 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 153 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle Eastlast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $89,732 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 418 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 189 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 98 of 257 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 257 | 34.2%88 W · 169 L | -7.6 | -0.03 | 37c | -29.5% | 47 |
The 257 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 257 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBA Inactivelast settled Jul 25, 2026, EDT | $193 | —no start of play | 14 h 30to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.74no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7 | -0.74 | 74c | -100% | 47 |
The 1 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Pokerlast settled Aug 6, 2026, EDT | $26 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.39no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8 | -0.39 | 39c | -100% | 47 |
The 2 picks behind Poker are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $1,214 | —no start of play | 9 dto the end, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1 | -0.11 | 41c | -50.1% | 47 |
The 10 picks behind Crypto Milestones are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Earningslast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $8,579 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 311 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 64 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 27 of 191 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 191 | 40.3%77 W · 114 L | -6.8 | -0.04 | 44c | -8.5% | 46 |
The 191 picks behind Earnings are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 191 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennislast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $4,721 | before 87%in play 13%, over 15 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 51 before the start | 7 dto the end, median over 100 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 22 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 12 of 35 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.0 | -0.06 | 51c | -13.1% | 46 |
The 35 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 35 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rateslast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $4,011 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 56 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 11 of 43 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.4 | -0.06 | 50c | -14.3% | 46 |
The 43 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 43 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| AIlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $12,437 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 312 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 102 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 49 of 145 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 145 | 41.4%60 W · 85 L | -6.7 | -0.05 | 46c | -19.7% | 46 |
The 145 picks behind AI are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 145 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Movieslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $7,941 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 258 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 48 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 27 of 133 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -6.7 | -0.05 | 52c | -11.9% | 45 |
The 133 picks behind Movies are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 133 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Token Launches Inactivelast settled Sep 3, 2026, EDT | $2,149 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 36 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | -0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 16 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9 | -0.12 | 43c | -36.2% | 45 |
The 16 picks behind Token Launches are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 16 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled Aug 24, 2026, EDT | $3,386 | before 0%in play 100%, over 30 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 20 after the start | 5 h 38to the end, median over 58 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 19 of 37 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.4 | -0.09 | 47c | -37.6% | 44 |
The 37 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 37 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $8,869 | before 70%in play 30%, over 33 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 19 before the start | 8 h 27to the end, median over 45 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 15 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 18 of 33 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2 | -0.10 | 49c | -26.4% | 44 |
The 33 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 33 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorant Inactivelast settled Jul 17, 2026, EDT | $1,504 | before 13%in play 87%, over 15 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 35 min after the start | 4 h 03to the end, median over 20 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 16 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6 | -0.16 | 48c | -38.4% | 43 |
The 16 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 16 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Politicslast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $1,914 | —no start of play | 4 h 18resells, median over 22 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled | -0.23no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0 | -0.21 | 36c | -70.5% | 42 |
The 14 picks behind Us Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBA Inactivelast settled Jul 26, 2026, EDT | $3,062 | —too few: 7 picks | 17 h 53to the end, median over 18 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.29no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9 | -0.29 | 49c | -65.8% | 41 |
The 10 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Musiclast settled Oct 3, 2026, EDT | $745 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 28 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | -0.25no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.4 | -0.23 | 36c | -71.4% | 41 |
The 15 picks behind Music are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 15 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Golf Inactivelast settled Sep 15, 2026, EDT | $5,282 | before 87%in play 13%, over 32 Golf picks with a start of play; typically bought 48 h 26 before the start | 4 dto the end, median over 60 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | -0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 20 of 45 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -6.1 | -0.14 | 38c | -42% | 40 |
The 45 picks behind Golf are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 45 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Commodities Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $7,283 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 133 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 60 of them sold before the market settled | -0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 24 of 66 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -8.2 | -0.12 | 49c | -33.6% | 40 |
The 66 picks behind Commodities are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 66 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| IPOlast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $603 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 34 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.29no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.8 | -0.29 | 52c | -68.5% | 39 |
The 13 picks behind IPO are not listed here. This wallet has 3,073 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 13 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 518
- What they are worth now
- $23,954bought for $23,132
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 518, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 (we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet at exactly that number is holding more than we counted). These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x096e…13e5backed outcome 1 | 404.88 | 24c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0x03e9…66cfbacked outcome 0 | 200 | 58c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 162.32 | 62c | $0 | Counted |
| Will Netanyahu say "Hormuz" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 144 | 54c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x4477…50cebacked outcome 0 | 135 | 40c | $0 | Not read yet |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above. 3 are not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.