Wallet 0x4c9a…0cd4
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4c9affa3a4f5ba6b9ab3dd272c20e47ea47e0cd4
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$103,278 staked over 3,426 qualified picks in 38 categories, 28 of 38 below 50.
Best category
Macro Indicators
$1,204 staked over 43 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full Macro Indicators boardSecond best
College Football
$178 staked over 11 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full College Football boardThird best
Middle East
$3,872 staked over 77 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full Middle East boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 3,426 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category38 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicatorslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $1,204 | —no start of play | 15 dto the end, median over 135 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 60 of them sold before the market settled | +0.10122% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 122% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 19 of 43 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.6 | +0.08 | 52c | +18.3% | 56 |
The 43 picks behind Macro Indicators are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 43 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $178 | —no start of play | 16 dto the end, median over 58 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 21 of them sold before the market settled | +0.16100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 11 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8 | +0.16 | 66c | +27.1% | 55 |
The 11 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 11 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle Eastlast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $3,872 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 202 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 92 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0580% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 80% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 28 of 77 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +4.4 | +0.06 | 45c | +15.7% | 55 |
The 77 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 77 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Chesslast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT | $24 | —no start of play | 8 dresells, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.68100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7 | +0.68 | 32c | +210.1% | 53 |
The 1 picks behind Chess are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Crypto Milestoneslast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $551 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 43 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 21 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0598% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 21 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0 | +0.05 | 57c | -0.9% | 52 |
The 21 picks behind Crypto Milestones are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 21 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions League Inactivelast settled Aug 26, 2026, EDT | $19 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.53100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5 | +0.53 | 47c | +112.8% | 52 |
The 1 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| China Taiwanlast settled Sep 30, 2026, EDT | $573 | —no start of play | 16 dto the end, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7 | +0.05 | 49c | +5.7% | 52 |
The 13 picks behind China Taiwan are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 13 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Jun 18, 2026, EDT | $29 | —too few: 1 pick | 2 h 42to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.47111% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 111% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4 | +0.42 | 58c | +72.3% | 52 |
The 1 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled Jun 27, 2026, EDT | $12 | —too few: 1 pick | 2 h 14to the end, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.59139% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 139% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4 | +0.42 | 58c | +71.9% | 52 |
The 1 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tweetslast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $4,412 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 481 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 237 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 60 of 132 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.4 | 0.00 | 50c | +1.3% | 50 |
The 132 picks behind Tweets are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 132 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBA Inactivelast settled Sep 4, 2026, EDT | $29 | —no start of play | 14 dto the end, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.04 | 54c | +42.9% | 50 |
The 2 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Venezuelalast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $23 | —no start of play | 6 dto the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.19no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.19 | 19c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind Venezuela are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $12 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.24no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.20 | 20c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $281 | —too few: 7 picks | 2 h 47to the end, median over 15 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 8 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5 | -0.05 | 49c | -18.4% | 49 |
The 9 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Musiclast settled Oct 9, 2026, EDT | $1,448 | —no start of play | 6 dto the end, median over 144 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 61 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 20 of 43 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4 | -0.03 | 47c | +1.6% | 48 |
The 43 picks behind Music are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 43 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Golf Inactivelast settled Sep 14, 2026, EDT | $84 | —no start of play | 3 dresells, median over 17 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6 | -0.15 | 65c | -27.4% | 48 |
The 4 picks behind Golf are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ukrainelast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $2,114 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 163 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 82 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 25 of 54 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.8 | -0.03 | 50c | -28.7% | 48 |
The 54 picks behind Ukraine are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 54 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $99 | —too few: 1 pick | 16 dto the end, median over 32 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.17no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8 | -0.16 | 36c | -54.5% | 47 |
The 5 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Weatherlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $30,882 | before 95%in play 5%, over 1,400 Weather picks with a start of play; typically bought 20 h 14 before the start | 2 dto the end, median over 5,495 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2,359 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 876 of 1,485 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,485 | 55.4%822 W · 663 L | -44.0 | -0.03 | 58c | -6.5% | 47 |
The 1,485 picks behind Weather are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,485 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Token Launcheslast settled Oct 10, 2026, EDT | $868 | —no start of play | 3 dresells, median over 105 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 63 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 27 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6 | -0.06 | 39c | -16.7% | 47 |
The 27 picks behind Token Launches are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 27 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorantlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $1,014 | before 0%in play 100%, over 20 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 19 after the start | 2 h 36to the end, median over 47 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | -0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 21 of 22 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5 | -0.07 | 43c | -8.7% | 46 |
The 22 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 22 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rateslast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $2,684 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 112 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 42 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 25 of 56 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -3.5 | -0.06 | 46c | -19.3% | 45 |
The 56 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 56 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Earningslast settled Oct 13, 2026, EDT | $1,076 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 108 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 39 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 12 of 33 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.6 | -0.08 | 56c | -14.2% | 45 |
The 33 picks behind Earnings are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 33 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Politicslast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $207 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 14 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.35no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4 | -0.35 | 60c | -50.2% | 45 |
The 4 picks behind Us Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 4 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politicslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $20,236 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 1,135 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 493 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 253 of 511 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 511 | 47.4%242 W · 269 L | -27.7 | -0.05 | 53c | -8.1% | 44 |
The 511 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 511 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $1,898 | before 10%in play 90%, over 29 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 30 min after the start | 4 h 28to the end, median over 44 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.17no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 30 of 32 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2 | -0.10 | 44c | -38.6% | 44 |
The 32 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 32 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Commoditieslast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $4,602 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 337 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 194 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 45 of 125 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | -8.5 | -0.07 | 51c | -12.3% | 44 |
The 125 picks behind Commodities are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 125 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Midtermslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $1,226 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 100 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 24 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 19 of 35 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.5 | -0.10 | 39c | -32.8% | 44 |
The 35 picks behind Us Midterms are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 35 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| IPOlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $509 | —no start of play | 15 dto the end, median over 31 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.19no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5 | -0.19 | 50c | -46.1% | 43 |
The 13 picks behind IPO are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 13 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 14, 2026, EDT | $4,055 | before 3%in play 97%, over 114 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 16 min after the start | 2 h 05to the end, median over 383 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | -0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 114 of 115 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | -10.6 | -0.09 | 47c | -35.4% | 42 |
The 115 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 115 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFClast settled Oct 4, 2026, EDT | $145 | —no start of play | 19 dto the end, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | -0.39no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4 | -0.39 | 56c | -79% | 42 |
The 6 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| AIlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $8,796 | —no start of play | 6 dto the end, median over 606 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 262 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 99 of 235 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 235 | 36.2%85 W · 150 L | -20.2 | -0.09 | 45c | -32.4% | 41 |
The 235 picks behind AI are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 235 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Oct 9, 2026, EDT | $3,087 | before 12%in play 88%, over 57 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 22 min after the start | 2 h 11to the end, median over 316 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 33 of them sold before the market settled | -0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 58 of 86 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -9.1 | -0.11 | 55c | -28% | 41 |
The 86 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 86 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lollast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $712 | —too few: 9 picks | 4 h 53to the end, median over 41 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.22no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 12 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.6 | -0.19 | 45c | -46.5% | 41 |
The 19 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 19 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $2,264 | before 0%in play 100%, over 23 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 01 after the start | 3 dto the end, median over 213 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 40 of them sold before the market settled | -0.13no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 31 of 56 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -6.7 | -0.12 | 51c | -29.1% | 41 |
The 56 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 56 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Movieslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $3,068 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 328 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 137 of them sold before the market settled | -0.13no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 31 of 106 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -12.5 | -0.12 | 49c | -36.8% | 39 |
The 106 picks behind Movies are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 106 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast settled Oct 8, 2026, EDT | $201 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 15 of them sold before the market settled | -0.32no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6 | -0.40 | 51c | -81.8% | 38 |
The 9 picks behind Stocks are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $787 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 98 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 34 of them sold before the market settled | -0.19no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 31 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.2 | -0.20 | 52c | -49.7% | 38 |
The 31 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 3,426 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 31 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
This wallet holds more positions than we read. We counted at least 500 running positions and stopped there. So no figure is shown: one side of a hedge could be in the part we did not reach. Wallets this size are almost certainly market makers, not forecasters. The record above is not affected.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.