Wallet 0x4df3…788f
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4df332e27f9ee3224f52ce30e3ce15c1075e788f
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$11,055,174 staked over 11,123 qualified picks in 31 categories, 13 of 31 below 50.
Best category
F1
$97,816 staked over 66 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full F1 boardSecond best
La Liga
$76,443 staked over 78 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full La Liga boardThird best
NHL
$7,707 staked over 52 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full NHL boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 11,123 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category31 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1last settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $97,816 | before 100%in play 0%, over 36 F1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 36 h 27 before the start | 2 dto the end, median over 98 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08115% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 115% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 26 of 66 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8 | +0.07 | 50c | +9.2% | 56 |
The 66 picks behind F1 are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 66 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $76,443 | before 93%in play 7%, over 76 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 04 before the start | 6 h 23to the end, median over 112 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0692% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 92% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 56 of 78 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +4.8 | +0.06 | 48c | +29.3% | 55 |
The 78 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 78 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast settled Jan 1, 2026, EST | $7,707 | before 71%in play 29%, over 51 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 26 before the start | 6 h 15to the end, median over 56 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06104% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 104% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 27 of 52 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.0 | +0.06 | 44c | +11.5% | 54 |
The 52 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 52 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mls Inactivelast settled Sep 12, 2026, EDT | $11,495 | before 57%in play 43%, over 21 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 16 min before the start | 3 h 33to the end, median over 31 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0798% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 12 of 21 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4 | +0.07 | 50c | +31.5% | 53 |
The 21 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 21 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Sep 29, 2026, EDT | $302,301 | before 89%in play 11%, over 943 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 17 before the start | 7 h 17to the end, median over 1,148 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0276% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 76% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 599 of 968 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 968 | 40.1%388 W · 580 L | +29.5 | +0.03 | 37c | +11.7% | 53 |
The 968 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 968 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Cricketlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $769,604 | before 83%in play 17%, over 338 Cricket picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 05 before the start | 10 h 40to the end, median over 397 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0282% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 82% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 199 of 339 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 339 | 47.2%160 W · 179 L | +10.1 | +0.03 | 44c | +4.7% | 53 |
The 339 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 339 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Golf Inactivelast settled Jul 19, 2026, EDT | $39,888 | before 11%in play 89%, over 27 Golf picks with a start of play; typically bought 74 h 37 after the start | 3 dto the end, median over 131 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 45% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 15 of 52 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.9 | +0.04 | 39c | -10.5% | 53 |
The 52 picks behind Golf are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 52 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLB Inactivelast settled Jul 24, 2026, EDT | $9,796 | before 65%in play 35%, over 37 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 min before the start | 5 h 14to the end, median over 42 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.04109% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 109% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 32 of 38 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4 | +0.04 | 51c | +5.6% | 53 |
The 38 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 38 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Australian A League Inactivelast settled Nov 1, 2025, EDT | $72 | —too few: 1 pick | 5 h 56to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.58100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6 | +0.58 | 42c | +138.1% | 52 |
The 1 picks behind Australian A League are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 19, 2026, EDT | $208,198 | before 91%in play 9%, over 232 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 57 min before the start | 4 h 24to the end, median over 326 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0275% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 75% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 227 of 258 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 258 | 48.4%125 W · 133 L | +5.7 | +0.02 | 46c | -1.5% | 52 |
The 258 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 258 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $484,645 | before 98%in play 2%, over 537 WNBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 40 before the start | 6 h 01to the end, median over 611 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0292% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 92% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 359 of 537 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 537 | 50.8%273 W · 264 L | +11.2 | +0.02 | 49c | +6.2% | 52 |
The 537 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 537 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier League Inactivelast settled Sep 18, 2026, EDT | $105,487 | before 99%in play 1%, over 94 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 11 before the start | 6 h 51to the end, median over 149 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 71% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 76 of 103 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +2.4 | +0.02 | 46c | -11.1% | 52 |
The 103 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 103 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Sep 9, 2026, EDT | $110,431 | before 92%in play 8%, over 87 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 49 before the start | 9 h 02to the end, median over 159 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0279% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 79% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 63 of 90 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +1.8 | +0.02 | 47c | 0% | 52 |
The 90 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 90 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $1,452,058 | before 94%in play 6%, over 1,233 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 46 before the start | 7 h 57to the end, median over 1,362 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 39 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0194% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 529 of 1,255 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,255 | 51.7%649 W · 606 L | +17.3 | +0.01 | 50c | +3.3% | 52 |
The 1,255 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,255 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesliga Inactivelast settled May 9, 2026, EDT | $13,376 | before 100%in play 0%, over 28 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 58 min before the start | 6 h 28to the end, median over 42 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 58% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 19 of 28 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4 | +0.01 | 45c | -21.1% | 51 |
The 28 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 28 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $6,936,860 | before 95%in play 5%, over 6,750 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 05 before the start | 7 h 51to the end, median over 7,255 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 121 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0184% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 84% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4,230 of 6,764 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6,764 | 50.5%3,413 W · 3,351 L | +49.6 | +0.01 | 50c | +1.3% | 51 |
The 6,764 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6,764 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFClast settled Oct 10, 2026, EDT | $77,731 | before 10%in play 90%, over 39 UFC picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 00 after the start | 3 h 11to the end, median over 179 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 72% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 87 of 143 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.7 | +0.01 | 52c | +1.7% | 50 |
The 143 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 143 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast settled Aug 20, 2026, EDT | $39,960 | before 94%in play 6%, over 50 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 06 before the start | 6 h 49to the end, median over 81 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 36 of 50 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +0.3 | +0.01 | 53c | +8.4% | 50 |
The 50 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 50 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled May 17, 2026, EDT | $10,309 | before 92%in play 8%, over 24 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 46 min before the start | 7 h 16to the end, median over 42 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 14 of 24 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 38c | +17.3% | 50 |
The 24 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 24 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ukraine Inactivelast settled Jul 1, 2025, EDT | $12 | —no start of play | 27 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0 | -0.01 | 1c | -100% | 50 |
The 1 picks behind Ukraine are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Politics Inactivelast settled Jan 25, 2025, EST | $68 | —no start of play | 50 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.07 | 7c | -100% | 50 |
The 1 picks behind Us Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled Sep 12, 2026, EDT | $36,449 | before 92%in play 8%, over 53 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 53 min before the start | 6 h 15to the end, median over 86 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 38 of 55 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.3 | -0.01 | 46c | -5.4% | 50 |
The 55 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 55 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politics Inactivelast settled Jun 24, 2026, EDT | $151,120 | —no start of play | 22 dto the end, median over 48 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 14 of 38 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3 | -0.01 | 35c | -32.4% | 49 |
The 38 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 38 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast settled Feb 9, 2026, EST | $5,291 | —too few: 8 picks | 7 h 49to the end, median over 20 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2 | -0.03 | 53c | -28.5% | 49 |
The 8 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Footballlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $87,097 | before 95%in play 5%, over 103 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 09 before the start | 5 h 46to the end, median over 107 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 42 of 103 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | -0.9 | -0.01 | 51c | -4.4% | 49 |
The 103 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 103 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $856 | —no start of play | 6 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.44no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.20 | 20c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Crypto Milestoneslast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $1,751 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4 | -0.06 | 23c | -62.3% | 49 |
The 6 picks behind Crypto Milestones are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 6 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Olympicslast settled Feb 22, 2026, EST | $3,387 | —too few: 2 picks | 4 dto the end, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5 | -0.09 | 49c | -12.3% | 48 |
The 5 picks behind Olympics are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Boxing Inactivelast settled Jul 19, 2025, EDT | $7,687 | —too few: 1 pick | 2 dto the end, median over 15 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.18no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4 | -0.18 | 31c | -78.5% | 45 |
The 8 picks behind Boxing are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagues Inactivelast settled Nov 7, 2025, EST | $6,864 | before 85%in play 15%, over 27 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 12 min before the start | 5 h 44to the end, median over 41 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 9 of 27 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3 | -0.09 | 49c | -27.9% | 45 |
The 27 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 27 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast settled Feb 28, 2026, EST | $415 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.53no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6 | -0.53 | 53c | -100% | 44 |
The 3 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 11,123 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 39
- What they are worth now
- $95,442bought for $97,331
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 39, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 (we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet at exactly that number is holding more than we counted). These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Bucks (-5.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Grizzlies · settled | 11,960 | 46c | $0 | Counted |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Cavaliers · settled | 9,796 | 36c | $0 | Counted |
| Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Nuggets · settled | 4,660 | 49c | $0 | Counted |
| Mavericks vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over · settled | 4,208 | 53c | $0 | Counted |
| Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner (opens in a new tab)backed Sebastian Ofner · settled | 3,779 | 13c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 5 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.