Wallet 0x4f1d…8de2
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4f1d5ae26fc31472966e951af3183308736d8de2
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$1,099,202 staked over 5,768 qualified picks in 46 categories, 23 of 46 below 50.
Best category
Valorant
$3,927 staked over 37 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.08 per pick.
See the full Valorant boardSecond best
Tennis
$19,174 staked over 75 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.08 per pick.
See the full Tennis boardThird best
NBA
$24,959 staked over 105 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full NBA boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 5,768 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category46 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valorantlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $3,927 | before 80%in play 20%, over 20 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 25 before the start | 6 dto the end, median over 108 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1281% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 81% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 17 of 37 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +5.2 | +0.14 | 51c | +22.8% | 59 |
The 37 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 37 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennislast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $19,174 | before 70%in play 30%, over 67 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 41 min before the start | 16 h 39to the end, median over 352 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.11108% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 108% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 43 of 75 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +7.6 | +0.10 | 58c | +16.5% | 58 |
The 75 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 75 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $24,959 | before 27%in play 73%, over 88 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 35 min after the start | 12 h 53to the end, median over 317 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 61% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 75 of 105 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +7.8 | +0.07 | 49c | +16.8% | 57 |
The 105 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 105 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $22,558 | before 100%in play 0%, over 72 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 02 before the start | 17 h 28to the end, median over 243 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0798% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 47 of 75 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.7 | +0.08 | 50c | +5.1% | 56 |
The 75 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 75 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled Sep 12, 2026, EDT | $1,782 | before 100%in play 0%, over 21 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 44 before the start | 8 h 36to the end, median over 111 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1299% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 6 of 21 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.6 | +0.12 | 50c | +64.9% | 56 |
The 21 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 21 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $18,034 | before 100%in play 0%, over 50 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 54 before the start | 8 h 28to the end, median over 187 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0595% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 22 of 55 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1 | +0.06 | 42c | +54.6% | 54 |
The 55 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 55 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lollast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $23,203 | before 88%in play 12%, over 52 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 35 before the start | 3 dto the end, median over 248 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0481% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 81% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 40 of 81 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.9 | +0.05 | 56c | +2.8% | 54 |
The 81 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 81 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Musiclast settled Oct 12, 2026, EDT | $3,319 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 272 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 53% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 21 of 46 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.2 | +0.05 | 52c | +12.8% | 53 |
The 46 picks behind Music are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 46 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $8,604 | before 100%in play 0%, over 53 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 54 before the start | 8 h 57to the end, median over 142 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 23 of 53 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.4 | +0.05 | 46c | -18.9% | 53 |
The 53 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 53 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| F1last settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $8,136 | before 100%in play 0%, over 30 F1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 35 h 52 before the start | 2 dto the end, median over 265 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 9 of 30 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.6 | +0.05 | 65c | +8.6% | 53 |
The 30 picks behind F1 are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 30 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tweetslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $52,094 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 807 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 78 of 124 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +3.5 | +0.03 | 56c | +6.4% | 53 |
The 124 picks behind Tweets are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 124 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Us Midtermslast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $34,149 | —no start of play | 16 dto the end, median over 600 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 61% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 67 of 117 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | +3.1 | +0.03 | 44c | +1.7% | 52 |
The 117 picks behind Us Midterms are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 117 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| UFC Inactivelast settled Aug 16, 2026, EDT | $1,381 | before 100%in play 0%, over 16 UFC picks with a start of play; typically bought 147 h 43 before the start | 11 dto the end, median over 55 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0595% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 17 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8 | +0.05 | 36c | +26.2% | 52 |
The 17 picks behind UFC are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 17 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $3,051 | —too few: 3 picks | 45 dto the end, median over 115 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0580% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 80% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 6 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7 | +0.07 | 53c | +5% | 52 |
The 10 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 10 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Macro Indicatorslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $10,085 | —no start of play | 17 dto the end, median over 362 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 63% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 29 of 60 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.5 | +0.03 | 57c | -2% | 52 |
The 60 picks behind Macro Indicators are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 60 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled Sep 20, 2026, EDT | $6,695 | before 100%in play 0%, over 19 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 18 before the start | 11 h 41to the end, median over 70 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0498% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 13 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8 | +0.04 | 49c | +17.7% | 52 |
The 19 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 19 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $2,128 | before 100%in play 0%, over 17 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 13 before the start | 7 dto the end, median over 135 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 11 of 25 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8 | +0.03 | 49c | +36.1% | 52 |
The 25 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 25 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mlslast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $4,967 | before 100%in play 0%, over 30 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 18 before the start | 13 h 00to the end, median over 125 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0399% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 17 of 30 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8 | +0.03 | 51c | +100.3% | 52 |
The 30 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 30 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Middle Eastlast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $7,236 | —no start of play | 35 dto the end, median over 76 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 13 of 18 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6 | +0.03 | 52c | +16% | 51 |
The 18 picks behind Middle East are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 18 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $34,797 | before 51%in play 49%, over 88 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 min before the start | 4 h 14to the end, median over 510 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 20 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 44% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 72 of 106 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.2 | +0.01 | 48c | -8.9% | 51 |
The 106 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 106 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $390,916 | before 68%in play 32%, over 1,029 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 26 before the start | 12 h 40to the end, median over 3,912 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 16 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 789 of 1,169 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,169 | 40%468 W · 701 L | +4.2 | 0.00 | 40c | -7.5% | 50 |
The 1,169 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,169 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled Sep 20, 2026, EDT | $2,049 | —too few: 9 picks | 4 h 40to the end, median over 30 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 5 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1 | +0.01 | 66c | -9.1% | 50 |
The 9 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| World Politicslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $194,064 | —no start of play | 9 dto the end, median over 3,120 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 249 of 502 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 502 | 55.2%277 W · 225 L | +0.7 | 0.00 | 55c | -7.6% | 50 |
The 502 picks behind World Politics are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 502 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Football Inactivelast settled Oct 3, 2026, EDT | $9,562 | before 100%in play 0%, over 13 College Football picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 18 before the start | 8 h 06to the end, median over 19 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1 | -0.01 | 47c | -6.2% | 50 |
The 13 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 13 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2last settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $12,892 | before 95%in play 5%, over 44 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 54 before the start | 1 dto the end, median over 200 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 40 of 61 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.4 | -0.01 | 53c | -5.1% | 50 |
The 61 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 61 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesligalast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $1,675 | before 100%in play 0%, over 12 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 48 before the start | 17 h 04to the end, median over 67 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2 | -0.02 | 44c | -38.9% | 49 |
The 12 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 12 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ncaa Basketballlast settled Jun 23, 2026, EDT | $1,126 | —no start of play | 31 dto the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.19no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.19 | 19c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind Ncaa Basketball are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Golf Inactivelast settled Jun 29, 2026, EDT | $837 | —too few: 2 picks | 5 h 02to the end, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.11 | 61c | +12.9% | 49 |
The 2 picks behind Golf are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Weatherlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $83,803 | before 78%in play 22%, over 2,252 Weather picks with a start of play; typically bought 8 h 38 before the start | 1 dto the end, median over 19,014 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,505 of 2,423 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2,423 | 60.4%1,463 W · 960 L | -23.3 | -0.01 | 61c | -4.2% | 49 |
The 2,423 picks behind Weather are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2,423 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| China Taiwanlast settled Sep 30, 2026, EDT | $4,299 | —no start of play | 33 dto the end, median over 103 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 17 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5 | -0.03 | 56c | -0.2% | 49 |
The 17 picks behind China Taiwan are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 17 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $22,052 | —no start of play | 31 dto the end, median over 29 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4 | -0.04 | 60c | -6.9% | 49 |
The 9 picks behind Fed Rates are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 9 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Euroleague Inactivelast settled May 24, 2026, EDT | $699 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.34no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3 | -0.34 | 34c | -100% | 49 |
The 1 picks behind Euroleague are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Pokerlast settled Aug 6, 2026, EDT | $57 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 8 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.28no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4 | -0.18 | 68c | -27.4% | 49 |
The 2 picks behind Poker are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast settled Sep 19, 2026, EDT | $2,681 | before 100%in play 0%, over 29 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 05 before the start | 7 h 37to the end, median over 149 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 17 of 29 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8 | -0.03 | 44c | -24% | 48 |
The 29 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 29 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NHL Inactivelast settled Jun 26, 2026, EDT | $2,067 | —too few: 1 pick | 5 h 02to the end, median over 41 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6 | -0.12 | 52c | -25.5% | 48 |
The 5 picks behind NHL are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| IPOlast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $10,798 | —no start of play | 11 dto the end, median over 128 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8 | -0.06 | 37c | -44.9% | 48 |
The 13 picks behind IPO are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 13 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Chesslast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT | $654 | —no start of play | 5 dto the end, median over 58 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.19no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7 | -0.09 | 46c | -41.9% | 48 |
The 8 picks behind Chess are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ukrainelast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $4,087 | —no start of play | 8 dto the end, median over 99 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0 | -0.07 | 43c | -38.1% | 47 |
The 14 picks behind Ukraine are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Movieslast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $15,927 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 448 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 33 of 59 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -2.3 | -0.04 | 45c | -36.2% | 47 |
The 59 picks behind Movies are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 59 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Aug 21, 2026, EDT | $2,622 | —too few: 3 picks | 4 dto the end, median over 29 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.17no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9 | -0.12 | 49c | -50.9% | 47 |
The 8 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 8 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Stocks Inactivelast settled Oct 8, 2026, EDT | $718 | —no start of play | 2 dto the end, median over 82 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 10 of 18 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4 | -0.08 | 41c | -47.3% | 46 |
The 18 picks behind Stocks are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 18 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| AIlast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $25,061 | —no start of play | 25 dto the end, median over 1,414 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 77 of 142 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -6.6 | -0.05 | 49c | -24.9% | 46 |
The 142 picks behind AI are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 142 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $8,898 | before 100%in play 0%, over 48 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 9 h 20 before the start | 7 h 53to the end, median over 239 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 14 of 52 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.3 | -0.06 | 43c | -29.6% | 45 |
The 52 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 52 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Commoditieslast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $3,241 | —no start of play | 9 dto the end, median over 187 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 19 of 43 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.5 | -0.08 | 55c | -20.3% | 44 |
The 43 picks behind Commodities are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 43 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $3,442 | —too few: 5 picks | 2 dto the end, median over 78 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.17no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 8 of 24 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4 | -0.14 | 56c | -25.4% | 42 |
The 24 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 24 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast settled Sep 17, 2026, EDT | $4,700 | before 100%in play 0%, over 26 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 44 before the start | 10 h 11to the end, median over 170 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.16no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 14 of 28 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.4 | -0.16 | 52c | -42.3% | 41 |
The 28 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 5,768 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 28 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked ; the figures below date from .
This wallet holds more positions than we read. We counted at least 500 running positions and stopped there. So no figure is shown: one side of a hedge could be in the part we did not reach. Wallets this size are almost certainly market makers, not forecasters. The record above is not affected.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.