Wallet 0x4f1d…8de2
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x4f1d5ae26fc31472966e951af3183308736d8de2
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 3,598
- What they are worth now
- $23,249
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50
bought for $238,110
worth $35
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 3,598, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x42d9…fbd5backed outcome 1 | 1,627shares | 57c | 86c | $1,394 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?backed No | 1,020shares | 86c | 89c | $908 |
| Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on August 26?backed No | 684.2shares | 1c | 100c | $684 |
| Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?backed No | 554.53shares | 99c | 99c | $549 |
| Market 0xa616…0410backed outcome 0 | 1,711shares | 2c | 30c | $521 |
| Will Teresa Surita win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?backed No | 439.02shares | 75c | 83c | $362 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housebacked Yes | 673.87shares | 49c | 49c | $327 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election?backed No | 292.9shares | 97c | 98c | $287 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MD-04 House election?backed No | 239.1shares | 99c | 99c | $237 |
| Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on August 26?backed Yes | 399.58shares | 25c | 50c | $200 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 — we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet sitting at exactly that number is holding more than we counted. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0x5573…356bbacked outcome 1 | 23.75shares | 38c | $12 | Not ingested |
| Market 0xa556…2585backed outcome 1 | 23.68shares | 72c | $12 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x03a3…5c88backed outcome 1 | 23.34shares | 24c | $12 | Not ingested |
| Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · resolved | 15,348shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · resolved | 3,000shares | 50c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 3 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 3,768
- Categories scored
- 42
- Categories below 50
- 24
Best Category: Valorant, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).
Best Category Valorant at 58 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 44.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 3,768 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weatherlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| NBAlast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Tennislast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Movieslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| Mlslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Musiclast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricketlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Chesslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Euroleague Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.