Wallet 0x505f…645e
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x505f23d257d23e4a1ec37ff9bca7c88f3bf0645e
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$1,161,456 staked over 9,545 qualified picks in 23 categories, 12 of 23 below 50.
Best category
Mls
$985 staked over 60 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.07 per pick.
See the full Mls boardSecond best
WNBA
$9,691 staked over 111 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full WNBA boardThird best
Premier League
$1,736 staked over 87 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full Premier League boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 9,545 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category23 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mlslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $985 | before 0%in play 100%, over 60 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 25 min after the start | 1 h 54to the end, median over 582 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.12115% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 115% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 50 of 60 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +6.1 | +0.10 | 63c | +13.5% | 58 |
The 60 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 60 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $9,691 | before 0%in play 100%, over 111 WNBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 14 min after the start | 2 h 25to the end, median over 182 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08130% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 130% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 111 of 111 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 111 | 60.4%67 W · 44 L | +6.6 | +0.06 | 54c | +2.3% | 55 |
The 111 picks behind WNBA are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 111 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $1,736 | before 0%in play 100%, over 87 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min after the start | 2 h 50to the end, median over 666 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 39% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 72 of 87 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +4.8 | +0.05 | 54c | +2.3% | 55 |
The 87 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 87 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| CS2last settled Oct 25, 2026, EDT | $315,615 | before 4%in play 96%, over 2,669 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 32 min after the start | 3 h 22to the end, median over 4,000 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0378% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 78% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2,526 of 2,669 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2,669 | 52.4%1,398 W · 1,271 L | +93.3 | +0.03 | 49c | -4.3% | 54 |
The 2,669 picks behind CS2 are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2,669 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $60,967 | before 0%in play 100%, over 638 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 45 min after the start | 2 h 29to the end, median over 1,211 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03118% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 118% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 636 of 638 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 638 | 56.4%360 W · 278 L | +18.2 | +0.03 | 54c | -4.1% | 53 |
The 638 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 638 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $1,453 | before 0%in play 100%, over 82 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 28 min after the start | 2 h 50to the end, median over 791 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.08224% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 224% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 76 of 82 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +2.9 | +0.04 | 60c | +2.7% | 53 |
The 82 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 82 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Valorantlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $21,462 | before 1%in play 99%, over 405 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 49 min after the start | 3 h 00to the end, median over 674 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 37% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 389 of 405 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +7.9 | +0.02 | 47c | -3.4% | 52 |
The 405 picks behind Valorant are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 405 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennislast settled Oct 25, 2026, EDT | $250,350 | before 3%in play 97%, over 2,158 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 36 min after the start | 2 h 02to the end, median over 4,143 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03152% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 152% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2,107 of 2,158 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2,158 | 55.7%1,203 W · 955 L | +39.2 | +0.02 | 54c | -3.6% | 52 |
The 2,158 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2,158 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 25, 2026, EDT | $4,229 | before 0%in play 100%, over 88 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 19 min after the start | 2 h 47to the end, median over 145 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.07364% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 364% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 88 of 88 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | +1.6 | +0.02 | 61c | -6.9% | 52 |
The 88 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 88 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| College Football Inactivelast settled Sep 26, 2026, EDT | $19 | —too few: 1 pick | 2 h 38to the end, median over 35 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.45122% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 122% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4 | +0.37 | 63c | +58.4% | 52 |
The 1 picks behind College Football are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled Sep 20, 2026, EDT | $924 | before 0%in play 100%, over 49 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 22 min after the start | 2 h 09to the end, median over 431 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01216% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 216% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 28 of 49 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.3 | +0.01 | 55c | +3.7% | 50 |
The 49 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 49 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Dota2last settled Oct 25, 2026, EDT | $419,053 | before 1%in play 99%, over 1,530 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 47 min after the start | 3 h 05to the end, median over 2,001 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,486 of 1,530 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,530 | 46.6%713 W · 817 L | -3.8 | 0.00 | 47c | -12.8% | 50 |
The 1,530 picks behind Dota2 are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,530 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $665 | before 0%in play 100%, over 30 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 14 min after the start | 1 h 50to the end, median over 250 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 29 of 30 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.7 | -0.02 | 56c | -6.2% | 48 |
The 30 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 30 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Lollast settled Oct 25, 2026, EDT | $43,455 | before <1%in play >99%, over 1,029 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 43 min after the start | 3 h 44to the end, median over 1,884 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1,021 of 1,029 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1,029 | 47.5%489 W · 540 L | -15.1 | -0.01 | 49c | -13% | 48 |
The 1,029 picks behind Lol are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1,029 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast settled Mar 29, 2026, EDT | $35 | —too few: 3 picks | 4 h 34to the end, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.21no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4 | -0.14 | 47c | -51.1% | 48 |
The 3 picks behind Ncaa Basketball are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $27,252 | before 0%in play 100%, over 413 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 13 min after the start | 2 h 25to the end, median over 994 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 410 of 413 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 413 | 43.6%180 W · 233 L | -9.9 | -0.02 | 46c | -17.8% | 47 |
The 413 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 413 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast settled Oct 10, 2026, EDT | $1,068 | before 0%in play 100%, over 61 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 17 min after the start | 3 h 36to the end, median over 797 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 41 of 61 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.3 | -0.04 | 51c | -16.6% | 47 |
The 61 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 61 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $96 | —too few: 5 picks | 1 h 55to the end, median over 161 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.22no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1 | -0.21 | 61c | -31.2% | 46 |
The 5 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 5 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $181 | before 0%in play 100%, over 11 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 20 min after the start | 3 h 27to the end, median over 395 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.13no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 9 of 11 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5 | -0.13 | 59c | -36.2% | 46 |
The 11 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 11 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 25, 2026, EDT | $1,518 | before 0%in play 100%, over 71 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 27 min after the start | 2 h 08to the end, median over 594 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 66 of 71 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -4.3 | -0.06 | 58c | -15.6% | 45 |
The 71 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 71 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFL Inactivelast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT | $46 | —too few: 3 picks | 3 h 22to the end, median over 26 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.48no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5 | -0.51 | 51c | -100% | 44 |
The 3 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 3 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $253 | before 0%in play 100%, over 15 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 22 min after the start | 1 h 48to the end, median over 158 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 12 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7 | -0.18 | 58c | -24.3% | 43 |
The 15 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 15 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesliga Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $404 | before 0%in play 100%, over 26 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 16 min after the start | 2 h 10to the end, median over 366 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.20no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 23 of 26 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.4 | -0.17 | 51c | -36.9% | 40 |
The 26 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 9,545 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 26 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 5
- What they are worth now
- $4bought for $4
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 44worth $0
Its 5 running positions
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over | 5 | 49c | 49c | $2 |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score in First Half (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 5 | 9c | 39c | $2 |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 10 | 0c | 1c | $0 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 10 | 0c | 1c | $0 |
| Club Tijuana vs. Club Santos Laguna: 1st Half O/U 0.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 5 | 28c | 0c | $0 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 44. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner (opens in a new tab)backed Inner Circle · settled | 4,175 | 26c | $0 | Counted |
| Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner (opens in a new tab)backed Eternal Fire · settled | 461.62 | 31c | $0 | Counted |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets (opens in a new tab)backed New York Mets · settled | 410 | 43c | $0 | Counted |
| Wimbledon ATP: Patrick Kypson vs Mackenzie McDonald (opens in a new tab)backed Mackenzie McDonald · settled | 400 | 45c | $0 | Counted |
| National Bank Open: Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonova (opens in a new tab)backed Maya Joint · settled | 235 | 42c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 5 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.