Wallet 0x50e5…e39f
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x50e53a797b6b889c5bbe19fcc7bd7f9eb9ede39f
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$698,645 staked over 4,792 qualified picks in 21 categories, 12 of 21 below 50.
Best category
Ligue 1
$3,418 staked over 50 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.07 per pick.
See the full Ligue 1 boardSecond best
Australian A League
$607 staked over 14 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full Australian A League boardThird best
Europa Conference League
$70,562 staked over 667 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full Europa Conference League boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Not worked out for this wallet. It has 4,792 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can work through while it loads. The same limit stops the record from listing its picks one by one. The record by category above still sums up every one of them.
Only a hypothetical is missing. Nothing in this wallet’s published record depends on it.
Record by category21 Categories
The rows below open onto a note, not onto their picks. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks, more than the 3,000 this page can list with one click. Each row still sums up all of its picks. The JSON version of this record has the same figures for each category.
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $3,418 | before 28%in play 72%, over 50 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 23 min after the start | 1 h 30to the end, median over 101 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.12109% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 109% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 49 of 50 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +5.3 | +0.11 | 55c | +11.3% | 58 |
The 50 picks behind Ligue 1 are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 50 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Australian A Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $607 | before 21%in play 79%, over 14 Australian A League picks with a start of play; typically bought 39 min after the start | 3 h 13to the end, median over 33 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.18110% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 110% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 13 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.2 | +0.16 | 63c | +30.2% | 56 |
The 14 picks behind Australian A League are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 14 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $70,562 | before 15%in play 85%, over 667 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 30 min after the start | 3 h 28to the end, median over 1,442 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06150% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 150% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 611 of 667 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 667 | 63%420 W · 247 L | +27.8 | +0.04 | 59c | +4.1% | 54 |
The 667 picks behind Europa Conference League are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 667 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $65,361 | before 24%in play 76%, over 862 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 21 min after the start | 3 h 11to the end, median over 1,682 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06146% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 146% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 853 of 862 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 862 | 58.7%506 W · 356 L | +32.5 | +0.04 | 55c | +3.4% | 54 |
The 862 picks behind South American Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 862 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Asian Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $16,269 | before 28%in play 72%, over 294 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 30 min after the start | 3 h 25to the end, median over 567 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0395% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 286 of 294 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 294 | 55.8%164 W · 130 L | +8.1 | +0.03 | 53c | +6.2% | 53 |
The 294 picks behind Asian League are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 294 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 19, 2026, EDT | $175,586 | before 50%in play 50%, over 888 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 0 min after the start | 2 h 25to the end, median over 2,059 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02123% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 123% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 882 of 888 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 888 | 52.7%468 W · 420 L | +13.9 | +0.02 | 51c | +1% | 52 |
The 888 picks behind Fifa International are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 888 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Bundesligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $10,684 | before 11%in play 89%, over 125 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 40 min after the start | 2 h 28to the end, median over 272 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01105% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 105% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 119 of 125 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +1.7 | +0.01 | 51c | -15.2% | 51 |
The 125 picks behind Bundesliga are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 125 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Tennis Inactivelast settled Nov 16, 2025, EST | $4,477 | —too few: 2 picks | 2 h 58to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.13107% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 107% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2 | +0.12 | 38c | -30.9% | 51 |
The 2 picks behind Tennis are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Mlslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $32,312 | before 57%in play 43%, over 288 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 12 min before the start | 2 h 33to the end, median over 492 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01209% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 209% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 279 of 288 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 288 | 54.5%157 W · 131 L | +1.8 | +0.01 | 54c | -2.5% | 51 |
The 288 picks behind Mls are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 288 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $19,848 | before 18%in play 82%, over 400 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 31 min after the start | 3 h 33to the end, median over 791 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 393 of 400 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 400 | 54%216 W · 184 L | -0.1 | 0.00 | 54c | -4.2% | 50 |
The 400 picks behind Other European Leagues are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 400 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Apr 2, 2026, EDT | $58,769 | before 0%in play 100%, over 17 Cricket picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 55 after the start | 4 h 17to the end, median over 22 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 16 of 17 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1 | -0.01 | 18c | -44% | 50 |
The 17 picks behind Cricket are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 17 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $62,086 | before 23%in play 77%, over 422 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 20 min after the start | 2 h 07to the end, median over 878 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 376 of 425 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 425 | 54.4%231 W · 194 L | -3.2 | -0.01 | 55c | -6.3% | 49 |
The 425 picks behind Champions League are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 425 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NBA Inactivelast settled Nov 13, 2024, EST | $300 | —too few: 2 picks | 7 h 47to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.10 | 60c | -31.5% | 49 |
The 2 picks behind NBA are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Boxing Inactivelast settled Nov 16, 2024, EST | $429 | —no start of play | 17 h 41to the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3 | -0.15 | 65c | -29.3% | 49 |
The 2 picks behind Boxing are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| La Ligalast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $15,709 | before 20%in play 80%, over 205 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 33 min after the start | 2 h 07to the end, median over 410 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 199 of 205 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | -3.4 | -0.02 | 53c | -8.6% | 48 |
The 205 picks behind La Liga are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 205 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $149,893 | before 35%in play 65%, over 449 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 15 min after the start | 2 h 56to the end, median over 771 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 356 of 450 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 450 | 47.1%212 W · 238 L | -8.0 | -0.02 | 49c | -7.6% | 48 |
The 450 picks behind Premier League are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 450 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Music Inactivelast settled May 18, 2025, EDT | $4,499 | —no start of play | 7 h 18to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.50no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4 | -0.44 | 44c | -100% | 48 |
The 1 picks behind Music are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $18 | —too few: 1 pick | 3 h 28to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.66no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6 | -0.61 | 61c | -100% | 47 |
The 1 picks behind MLB are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Space Inactivelast settled Nov 19, 2024, EST | $160 | —no start of play | 2 h 12to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.60no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8 | -0.80 | 80c | -100% | 47 |
The 1 picks behind Space are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 1 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| NFL Inactivelast settled Nov 15, 2024, EST | $293 | —too few: 2 picks | 5 h 05to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.46no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9 | -0.45 | 45c | -100% | 46 |
The 2 picks behind NFL are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 2 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
| Serie Alast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $7,363 | before 28%in play 72%, over 96 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 19 min after the start | 1 h 47to the end, median over 182 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 94 of 96 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -5.1 | -0.05 | 49c | -25.7% | 45 |
The 96 picks behind Serie A are not listed here. This wallet has 4,792 qualified picks in all, more than the 3,000 this page can open with one click. The row above sums up all 96 of them. The JSON version of this record has the same figures. | |||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 16
- What they are worth now
- $242bought for $453
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 11worth $2,913
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 16, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0xddc3…700cbacked outcome 1 | 57 | 99c | 100c | $57 |
| Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-10-25? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 73 | 80c | 52c | $38 |
| Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-10-25? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 34 | 69c | 100c | $34 |
| Kataller Toyama vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: O/U 3.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over | 526 | 38c | 4c | $22 |
| Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 1.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 18 | 73c | 90c | $16 |
| Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 12 | 85c | 100c | $12 |
| Kataller Toyama vs. Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo: O/U 2.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Over | 59 | 61c | 19c | $11 |
| Albirex Niigata vs. Vegalta Sendai: Albirex Niigata 1st Half O/U 1.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under | 9 | 92c | 100c | $9 |
| Market 0xf225…ae67backed outcome 1 | 7 | 80c | 100c | $7 |
| Boluspor leading at halftime? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 7 | 75c | 90c | $6 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 11. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0xd9db…06c9backed outcome 1 | 1,465 | 52c | $1,465 | Not read yet |
| Market 0x2518…f028backed outcome 0 | 265.7 | 42c | $266 | Not read yet |
| Market 0x3be4…3b6ebacked outcome 1 | 181.08 | 62c | $181 | Not read yet |
| Market 0xd5f7…44acbacked outcome 1 | 162 | 44c | $162 | Not read yet |
| Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 4.5 (opens in a new tab)backed Under · settled | 161.85 | 72c | $162 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 does: the wallet holds a scored pick on that market, already in the table above. 4 are not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.