Wallet 0x510f…a43c
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x510f4963b66b1b18505faab74b0bb943d1dda43c
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 3,712
- What they are worth now
- $19,964
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 49
bought for $22,105
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 3,712, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?backed No | 90shares | 97c | 97c | $87 |
| Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?backed No | 90.02shares | 92c | 92c | $83 |
| Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?backed Yes | 89.99shares | 79c | 78c | $70 |
| Will Russell Henley win the 2026 TOUR Championship?backed No | 60shares | 97c | 98c | $59 |
| Market 0xae56…e84cbacked outcome 1 | 60shares | 94c | 96c | $58 |
| Market 0xa2c8…5c80backed outcome 1 | 60shares | 94c | 96c | $58 |
| Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?backed No | 62.52shares | 91c | 92c | $57 |
| NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?backed No | 60.01shares | 95c | 95c | $57 |
| Market 0x46d3…9c5ebacked outcome 0 | 60shares | 95c | 95c | $57 |
| Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?backed No | 60shares | 91c | 94c | $56 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 49. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 17?backed Yes · resolved | 65.13shares | 7c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 25?backed No · resolved | 63.42shares | 17c | $0 | Counted |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 26?backed No · resolved | 59.93shares | 34c | $0 | Counted |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 8?backed Yes · resolved | 54.83shares | 2c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 26?backed Yes · resolved | 49.11shares | 4c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 3 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 5,812
- Categories scored
- 44
- Categories below 50
- 19
Best Category: Valorant, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).
Best Category Valorant at 61 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 42.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 5,812 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weatherlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Commoditieslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| AIlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Movieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Musiclast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| Token Launcheslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Earningslast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| Stockslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| IPOlast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Tennislast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| Chesslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Us Politicslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 31cpaid | +295.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.