Wallet 0x54b5…4b31
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x54b56146656e7eef9da02b3a030c18e06e924b31
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
TailMyPicks does not watch what 0x54b5…4b31 is holding. Live positions are read for the strongest fifty wallets in each category, and this one is not among them — so this is we have not looked, not there is nothing there. Its record below is unaffected: that is rebuilt from resolved markets and does not depend on this. You can see what the wallets we do watch are buying on the tail feed.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 3,157
- Categories scored
- 48
- Categories below 50
- 25
Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).
Best Category China Taiwan at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 41.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 3,157 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 446 | 48.4%216 W · 230 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT | 214 | 44.4%95 W · 119 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.