Wallet 0x5a21…9318
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x5a218c7ad04135830a45c41aaed7294df7809318
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked ; the figures below date from . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
This wallet holds more positions than we read. We counted at least 500 running positions and stopped there, so no figure is shown: a fragment of an account is not an account, and one side of a hedge could be sitting in the part nobody reached. Wallets this size are almost certainly market makers rather than forecasters. The record below is unaffected.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 12,009
- Categories scored
- 41
- Categories below 50
- 14
Best Category: MLB, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).
Best Category MLB at 57 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly.
The individual picks are not listed for this wallet. It holds 12,009 qualified picks — more than the 2,000 this page can detail on the request path. The record below is the summary of every one of them, and the JSON endpoint carries the same per-Category figures.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weatherlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| World Politicslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| MLBlast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT | 250 | 45.6%114 W · 136 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| AIlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Movieslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| Macro Indicatorslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| Musiclast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Lollast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Tennislast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| CS2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| Chesslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.