TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6bab…0fe5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT5541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.97
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+57.6%+$151.72
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,803Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,802.81
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$4,330Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,330.11
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$6,043Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+74.6%+$4,506.08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$4,345Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+41.7%+$1,811.9
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,237Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,236.78
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$7,267Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,266.92
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10,324Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,323.94
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,253Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$463.36
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$794Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$215.44
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,119.62
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$7,317Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,316.51
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.33
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,390Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$2,263.63
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.63
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,293Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,292.92
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,502Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,502
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$8,364Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$3,339.12
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,543Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+72.9%+$1,124.82
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,322Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$359.36
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,007Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+43.6%+$438.71
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$784Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+37.6%+$294.71
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$987Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+26.7%+$263.25
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT2714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-74.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,184.01
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,413Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,413.16
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,569Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,569
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$5,510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,510.17
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,048Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,048
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,253Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+181.7%+$2,276.85
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,008Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,008
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,536Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,536
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,008.8
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,001
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$4,321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,321.31
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,000
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,424Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,424.2
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$994Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$994
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,025
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$3,173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,172.87
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$5,948Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,948.02
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,105.42
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$2,048Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,048
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,251.91
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,020
Will Ghana finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$57.67
Spread: England (-2.5)backed Panama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,416Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$535.17
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,925Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,925
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,002Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,002
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick69cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$443Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$135.89
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.24
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.66
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,672Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$1,093.77
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$86.2
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,559Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$1,503.02
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$4,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,879.64
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$1,173.66
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$366.97
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.88
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,370Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$456.68
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$29.27
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$5,202Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+126.4%+$6,577.24
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.83
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,602Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+46.3%+$1,204.91
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14,324Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+59.3%+$8,498.71
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,210Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$633.66
All 8 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Jeremy Stephens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.7
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Joshua Van · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+150%+$300
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alexander Volkov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$150.5
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Joel Álvarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$711Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$710.64
Will Jirí Procházka win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.54
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Jirí Procházka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.75
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,678Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+74.4%+$1,248.75
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$906Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+200.7%+$1,817.72
All 8 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$961Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$960.97
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,179.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,465Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.6%+$449.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$973.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$296.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$185.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.